clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Bracketology 2022: Who’s in and who’s out according to experts as of January 19

We take an early look at the projected field of 68 from America’s best bracketologists as of Thursday, January 19.

NCAA Basketball: Houston at Tulane Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022-23 men’s college basketball season continues to plunge through the month of January as team’s start to get into the thick of conference play. While we still have a ways to go before the end of the regular season, it’s never too early to start speculating who will land where for the NCAA Tournament in March.

That’s right, Bracketology season is finally upon us.

Analysts like Joe Lunardi of ESPN, Jerry Palm of CBS, Kevin Sweeney of Sports Illustrated, and Chris Dobbertean of Blogging the Bracket are regularly updating their projected field of 68 and going over where the top programs will end up come tourney time in mid-March. We’ll go over what the experts are projecting as the rest of the season unfolds.

No. 1 seeds

As of right now, there seems to be a consensus among experts that the No. 1 seeds will be Alabama, Houston, Kansas, and Purdue. This tracks as they all currently occupy the top four slots in the AP poll and are ranked in the top seven in both NET and KenPom rankings.

Out of the four, Houston would most likely grab the top overall seed in the tournament if the season ended today. The Cougars are the top rated team in KenPom and NET, posting an 8-1 record in Quad 1-2 games and a perfect 10-0 record against Quad 4 opponents.

Other Notable Seeds

Simmering just below that top tier are red hot teams that could play their way into the No. 1 seed conversation if they continue to rack up more wins in conference play. The experts have the likes of Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Xavier operating as two-seeds at moment with the Iowa State receiving some consideration for this group. Also in the mix as three-seeds are Arizona, Texas, Virginia, and UConn.

The stock of UConn in particular has plummeted over the last two weeks and Wednesday’s 67-66 loss to Seton Hall marked its fifth loss in six games. This was a team that was undefeated coming out of the Christmas holiday and seemed to be on track to solidifying a possible No. 1 seed. That’s a testament to how quickly this can all change with each passing week.

Who’s In/Out

Where things get really is the bubble and determining which teams will get invited to the big dance and which teams will get left at home.

As of right now, there’s a question mark surrounding Kentucky, with some experts like Sweeney and Palm having John Calipari’s group making the field of 68 while others like Lunardi and Dobbertean have them staying home. The Wildcats have had a disjointed start in SEC play and a home loss to South Carolina did significant damage to their resume. They’ve since rebounded with good wins over Tennessee and Georgia, so we’ll see which side of the bubble they’ll inch towards in the coming weeks.

Other notable schools on the bubble include Memphis, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and West Virginia. The Mountaineers in particular got off to a disastrous 0-5 start in Big 12 play before finally picking up a victory against TCU on Wednesday. They’re ranked 23rd in KenPom and 24th in NET, so at least the metrics have their back.

Conference Breakdown

Big Ten - 11 (Dobbertean), 10 (Lunardi and Palm)
Big 12 - 8 (Dobbertean and Lunardi), 7 (Palm)
SEC - 6 (Palm), 5 (Dobbertean and Lunardi)
Big East - 5 (Dobbertean and Lunardi), 4 (Palm)
ACC - 7 (Dobbertean, Lunardi, and Palm),
Pac-12 - 4 (Palm), 3 (Dobbertean and Lunardi)
WCC - 2 (Dobbertean, Lunardi, and Palm)
MWC - 3 (Dobbertean, Lunardi, and Palm)
AAC - 2 (Lunardi and Palm), 1 (Dobbertean)

Last Four In, Last Four Out

Last Fours January 19

Seed Lunardi Dobbertean Palm Sweeney
Seed Lunardi Dobbertean Palm Sweeney
Last Four Byes
16 Indiana Michigan State Creighton
15 Wisconsin Oklahoma Maryland
14 Memphis Northwestern Kentucky
13 Maryland Penn State Wisconsin
Last Four In
12 Boise State West Virginia Maryland Pittsburgh
11 Oklahoma Pittsburgh Indiana Northwestern
10 Penn State New Mexico USC Memphis
9 New Mexico Wisconsin Memphis Penn State
First Four Out
8 Kentucky Wake Forest Nevada Mississippi State
7 West Virginia UCF Wake Forest Oklahoma
6 Northwestern VIrginia Tech Florida West Virginia
5 Texas A&M Boise State UCF Wake Forest
Next Four Out
4 USC Mississippi State Florida
3 Utah State Utah Utah
2 Florida Oregon Nevada
1 Virginia Tech Kentucky Oklahoma State

Full projected NCAA Tournament Field as of January 19

Bracketology January 19

Seed Lunardi Dobbertean Palm Sweeney
Seed Lunardi Dobbertean Palm Sweeney
1 Kansas Kansas Alabama Purdue
Houston Purdue Kansas Kansas
Purdue Alabama Purdue Houston
Alabama Houston Houston Alabama
2 Gonzaga Tennessee UCLA Iowa State
UCLA UCLA Tennessee Gonzaga
Tennessee Gonzaga Xavier Tennessee
Texas Xavier Gonzaga UCLA
3 Arizona UConn Uconn UConn
Iowa State Texas Virginia Texas
Xavier Arizona Texas Xavier
UConn Virginia Arizona Kansas State
4 Marquette Kansas State Iowa St. TCU
TCU Iowa State TCU Virginia
Kansas St. Marquette Miami Marquette
Virginia TCU Kansas St. Arizona
5 Rutgers Illinois Nc State Miami
Illinois Duke Rutgers Rutgers
Miami Rutgers Baylor Illinois
Baylor Miami Auburn Baylor
6 Providence Baylor Illinois Arkansas
Arkansas Auburn Marquette Saint Mary’s
Duke Providence Saint Mary's Auburn
Auburn Iowa Providence Duke
7 Iowa Arkansas San Diego St Providence
Saint Mary's San Diego State Duke San Diego State
Michigan St. FAU Michigan St. North Carolina
NC State Clemson Arizona St. Michigan State
8 North Carolina NC State Wisconsin Clemson
Clemson Missouri Iowa Ohio State
Creighton Saint Mary’s Clemson Missouri
San Diego St. Maryland Missouri NC State
9 Missouri Ohio State N. Carolina FAU
Arizona St. Indiana Pittsburgh Boise State
Pittsburgh North Carolina Arkansas Iowa
Ohio State Creighton Penn St. Indiana
10 Charleston Arizona State Oklahoma Maryland
Wisconsin Michigan State Northwestern Creighton
FAU Oklahoma New Mexico Arizona State
Indiana Charleston Boise St. New Mexico
11 Nevada Northwestern Kentucky Northwestern/Memphis
Memphis Penn State USC/Maryland Kentucky
Boise State/Penn State West Virginia/Wisconsin FAU Pittsburgh/Penn State
Maryland Nevada Charleston Wisconsin
12 Oklahoma/New Mexico Pittsburgh/New Mexico Memphis/Indiana VCU
Liberty Kent State Dayton Oral Roberts
Oral Roberts Southern Miss. Oral Roberts Charleston
Kent State VCU Kent St. Kent State
13 Marshall Oral Roberts Uc Irvine Marshall
Southern Illinois Liberty S. Illinois Southern Illinois
Princeton Southern Illinois Marshall Liberty
VCU Seattle Liberty UC Irvine
14 Seattle Princeton Cornell Seattle
UC Riverside UC Riverside Siue Youngstown State
Youngstown St. SIU Edwardsville E. Washington Colgate
Colgate Colgate Seattle Princeton
15 SIU Edwardsville Siena Longwood Siena
Eastern Washington Eastern Washington Colgate SIUE
Siena Samford Youngstown St. Samford
Samford Milwaukee Samford Eastern Washington
16 SE Louisiana UNC Asheville Southern U. Fairleigh Dickinson/UMBC
Southern/Morgan State UMBC Fdu/Texas A&M-CC Southern/Morgan State
Southeastern Louisiana/FDU Southeastern Louisiana/Fairleigh Dickinson Morgan State/UMBC UNC-Asheville
UNC Asheville Morgan State/Southern Siena Texas A&M–Corpus Christi