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Betting the over/under for Bengals-Bills in the Divisional Round

We make a pick for the over/under as the Bills face the Bengals in the Divisional round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs.

Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots
Josh Allen and the Bills are one win away from the AFC Championship Game.
Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals square off in the AFC Divisional Round just weeks after their regular-season matchup was postponed by Damar Hamlin’s tragic on-field collapse. Now, a trip to the AFC Championship Game is on the line. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET Sunday from Highmark Stadium. Here is a look at the O/U in this game and the best bet on Sunday.

Over/under pick: Bills vs. Bengals

DraftKings Sportsbook has set the O/U in this game at 48.5. That line seems pretty on the nose, but there is reason to believe it will trend under. The two biggest reasons are the Bills’ turnover issues and the Bengals’ offense line health.

While the Bills put up 34 points on the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card round, the offense largely floundered after an early explosion. Turnovers have been the team’s Achilles heel this season. They gave it away 27 times in the regular season, third-most in the NFL, wedged between the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears, the league’s two worst teams. Josh Allen has turned the ball over in the red zone six times. If this trend continues Sunday, it will make for a few wasted drives that keep points off the board.

Cincinnati’s biggest problem isn’t Joe Burrow turning the ball over, but simply staying upright. Burrow has been sacked 23 times in just five career postseason starts, and while his line is better this season, it’s been hit by the injury bug at the wrong time. The Bengals will be without three starters: LT Jonah Williams (knee), La’el Collins (ACL), and Alex Kappa (ankle). Especially against Buffalo’s fearsome front seven, Burrow could find it difficult to navigate the pocket. Thus, the Bengals’ path to victory is not through a shootout, but through a War of Attrition.

The Pick: Under 48.5.