Pick on the moneyline for Creighton-Providence on February 14

The race for the Big East Title is as tight as it gets with four teams within 1.5 games of each other. Two of these teams get to clash on Tuesday when the Creighton Blue Jays go on the road to face the Providence Friars.

Creighton Blue Jays (-2, 141) vs. Providence Friars

In terms of overall numbers and rankings, both teams are nearly equal in most aspects but Creighton enters the game on an eight game winning streak.

The Blue Jays’ raw numbers are skewed from a stretch after the Maui Invitational where they did not have leading scorer, 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner. The Blue Jays are outside the top 40 this season in both points scored and points allowed on a per-possession basis, but are 11-2 since Kalkbrenner’s return and have allowed fewer than 70 points 11 times in that span.

During the first meeting between these two teams, Creighton won at home 73-67. Providence played tough, grabbing 15 more rebounds but shot just 4-of-19 from 3-point range and 38.5% from the field.

Providence’s offense has been much more efficient at home this season, averaging 11.9 more points per 100 possessions than in a road or neutral court environment. As a squad, they make 37.1% of their 3-point shots at home compared to just 31.3% on the road.

Much like the first matchup, Providence should win the battle on the boards, ranking third in the nation in rebound rate and managing to grab an offensive rebound on 34.2% of its missed shots. In comparison, Creighton ranks just 232nd in the percentage of misses that result in an offensive rebound at 24.9%.

In Providence’s last 40 home games as a favorite of 10 points or fewer or as an underdog, the team is 27-13 against the spread and 34-6 straight up. This trend will continue on Tuesday.

The Play: Providence Moneyline +115

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