The Wisconsin Badgers’ NCAA Tournament hopes enter Wednesday’s home game against the Iowa Hawkeyes in bad shape while the Hawkeyes are hunting for revenge and a resume booster of their own.
Iowa Hawkeyes (-1, 139.5) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
When these teams played on December 11 in Iowa City, Wisconsin picked up a 78-75 overtime victory in which Iowa’s top scorer Kris Murray was out due to injury.
While the 7-of-27 3-point shooting performance in December was atypical for Iowa at home, it would be par for the course for their offense on the road this season. Iowa overall ranks 13th in the nation in points scored on a per-possession basis, but averages 22.5 points fewer per 100 possessions when away from home with their 3-point shooting percentage going from 38.4% at home to 28% in a road or neutral court environment.
The second-chance opportunities Iowa gets are also unlikely to present themselves on Wednesday with Wisconsin allowing road opponents to rebound 20.4% of their missed shots, a home defensive rebound rate that ranks 27th in the country.
Wisconsin also has some pretty large home and road shooting splits, making 39.9% of their 3-point shots at home compared to 32.1% away from home and notching an average of 8.2 points more per 100 possessions when at home versus away from home.
With overtime excluded, Wisconsin has allowed 61 points or fewer in six of their past seven games and the first time these teams played, the game was 60-60 prior to overtime.
The Badgers will use their crafty defense coupled with a pace that ranks 346th in the country in possessions per game to slow down Iowa and get a much-needed win for their NCAA Tournament resume.
The Play: Wisconsin Moneyline -105
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