Pick on the spread for Texas A&M-Alabama on March 12

The SEC title game involves a rematch from earlier in the month as the Alabama Crimson Tide look to avenge their road loss to the Texas A&M Aggies on Sunday.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5, 144.5)

Both teams enter Sunday in prime form on defense as Alabama has allowed 70 points or fewer in 18 of its last 20 games against SEC opponents this season while Texas A&M has allowed fewer than 70 points in 19 of its last 23 games.

The difference with the Crimson Tide, however, is how frantic their pace is, ranking second in the nation in total possessions per game and sixth among all Division I teams in points allowed per possession. In comparison, the Aggies rank 57th in points allowed per possession.

When these teams last faced, Alabama shot just 6-of-34 from 3-point range, a percentage that should go up with Texas A&M playing on the road this time around. At home, opponents shoot just 29.6% from 3-point range compared to 35.1% from 3-point range in road and neutral court games.

Opponents shoot just 27.5% from 3-point range against the Crimson Tide when playing at home, good for the best mark in college basketball.

The Aggies should have difficulty on the boards, too, totaling nine fewer rebounds than the Crimson Tide. The rankings aren’t much different on paper with Alabama ranked 11th in the nation in rebound rate and Texas A&M ranked 19th. But, the Aggies do not have a single player averaging more than 5.7 rebounds per game.

With the Aggies’ lackluster perimeter shooting defense when playing on the road and the Crimson Tide’s ability to control the boards, the Crimson Tide will exact revenge and get an SEC Tournament title in the process.

The Play: Alabama -4.5

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