Pick on the Moneyline for Boise State-Northwestern March 16

The Northwestern Wildcats are making just their second NCAA Tournament appearance in program history and start it off by heading west to take on a Boise State Broncos bunch looking to avenge last year’s first-round loss to the Memphis Tigers.

Boise State Broncos vs. Northwestern Wildcats (-1.5, 128.5)

Depth is not Boise State’s forte but it plays a particularly slow brand of basketball to combat fatigue, ranking 232nd in the nation in possessions per game. Northwestern plays even slower, ranking 308th in possessions per game.

All five of the Broncos’ starters average at least 10.0 points and 4.6 rebounds per game each while the Wildcats have the edge on outside shooting percentage, making 36% of their 3-point attempts as a squad.

Among Northwestern’s top six scorers, nobody shoots above 34.3% from 3-point range and as a squad, ranks just 280th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage.

The 3-point shooting defense favors Boise State, ranking 29th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage with Northwestern allowing its opponents to shoot 35.5% from 3-point range in games on the road. The Wildcats rank 168th overall in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

Northwestern’s defense does not travel the same as Boise State, with the Wildcats ranking 18th in the nation in points allowed per possession and the Broncos ranking 34th. However, Northwestern falls to 39th in this category in games played on the road while Boise State ranks 35th in road defensive efficiency.

Northwestern has scored more than 65 points just once in its last eight games, and with Boise State’s overall balance that will not play fast enough to tire out its front-line starters, Northwestern’s trip out west will be a one-and-done scenario.

The Play: Boise State Moneyline +110

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