Picks, prediction for TCU vs. Arizona State in First Round of 2023 NCAA Tournament

The No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs take on the No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The game will air on truTV at 10:05 p.m. ET on Friday, March 17.

No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Arizona State picks

Spread: TCU -6
Over/Under: 141
Moneyline: TCU -240, ASU +200

The TCU Horned Frogs fell to Oklahoma in their final regular season game just after beating Texas and Texas Tech. They overcame Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament before falling against Texas. TCU ranks 27th overall at KenPom and 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency. On offense, they will be relying on guard Mike Miles, Jr., who has been a make-or-break factor for the team. TCU leans on the shorter shot and struggles from the perimeter.

Arizona State bested Nevada in the First Four game on Wednesday to earn the No. 11 seed. ASU ranks 52nd at KenPom and made a surprisingly deep run into the Pac-12 Tournament, ending in the semifinals with a loss to in-state rival Arizona. Their defense is all over the paint, which will make it challenging for TCU to run their preferred close-shot offense. Their defense is their strength, and while their offense is inconsistent, the Sun Devils put up 98 points on Wednesday.

If ASU can continue that shooting momentum and collapse around the basket on defense, they have a real shot.

Pick: ASU +6