Pick against the spread, over/under for 76ers vs. Mavericks on Thursday

Update: Embiid is listed as probable for tonight, so he’s set to suit up. The line has shifted a bit, with the Mavericks now listed as 3-point favorites. We’re going to maintain our pick of Sixers +3. The total is 228.5, and we’ll keep our prediction for the under there.

After dropping games to the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers, the Dallas Mavericks (32-31) will look to turn things around tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers (40-21).

After missing last night’s game, Joel Embiid (left foot soreness) is questionable for tonight, while Davis Bertans (calf) is out for the Mavericks.

Dallas is a 4-point favorite at Draftkings Sportsbook. The total sits at 228.

76ers vs. Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: 76ers +4

While conventional wisdom says to picks the star-studded Mavs — especially since the Philadelphia is the second night of a back-to-back and could be without Embiid — I still like the 76ers to cover. They’ve been playing inspired basketball over the past month (6-2 since Feb. 10), and are coming off one of their best performances of the year. Last night they beat the Heat 119-96 in a performance that showcased their versatility on both sides of the ball.

Over/Under: Under 228

This is too many points, especially if Embiid is out. The 76ers haven’t hit the over in four straight games, while the Mavs have hit it in two of their last four games. While any game that features Luka Doncic, Kyrie Iriving and James Harden has a chance to become a shootout, that won’t the case tonight.