As the 2023 MLB season approaches, fans and bettors alike are speculating the home run totals of several key players. DraftKings Sportsbook has posted the corresponding over/unders, and we’ll take a closer look at several that jump off the screen for better or worse.
2023 MLB HR total props
Shohei Ohtani, Under 35.5 HRs (-120)
Yes, I completely understand this makes me look like a fun hater. Don’t worry, we’ll get to the “overs” in a minute. This prediction doesn’t have anything to do with Ohtani’s talent. He’s fully capable of blasting 36+ round-trippers. After all, the guy came through with 46 dingers in 2021. However, we need to embrace the sad reality of Ohtani’s situation: as long as he’s pitching, the injury risk remains high. The two-way superstar had 34 homers in 157 games last season, and there’s a good chance he’ll see less action in 2023.
Anthony Santander, Over 28.5 HRs (-105)
Aaron Judge hit the most home runs in the final three months of the regular season. Austin Riley was second. Then came Santander, who smacked 19 round-trippers from July 1 onward. That translated to 33 total homers in 152 games last season. It seems like the now 28-year-old flicked his power switch to the “on” position, and he could flirt with 35 homers once again.
Trea Turner, Over 23.5 HRs (-105)
If Turner’s home run pace from the World Baseball Classic carries into the regular season, then this prop will cash before the All-Star game. Seriously though, Turner went for 28 homers in 2021 while coming through with 21 round-trippers for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season. His expected home runs last season was 23, according to Baseball Savant. Now playing for the Philadelphia Phillies, the move to Citizens Bank Park is a lateral one as far as homers are concerned. Turner has more power at the moment than he showcased early in his career, and he’s an incredibly durable option that doesn’t take many games off.