Breaking down cut line for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA TOUR is in the second round of the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational on Friday, and Kurt Kitayama holds a one-shot lead at -7 as the morning players are starting to wrap up their rounds, while the afternoon tee times are taking to the course.

But we’re not here for the leaders; we’re here to see who and how many will play the weekend of the 120-man field at Bay Hill in Orlando.

It should be about 3-4 p.m. before we have a solid idea of what the final cut line should be, but many participants will know they’re heading home after holing out on 18 today

How is the cut line determined?

The cut line at 36 holes is the top 65 players plus those tied at the end of that group.

What is the projected cut line for the Arnold Palmer Invitational as of now?

Update 7:00 p.m. The cut line will either be +1 or +2, as two players are still on the course at the end of play on Friday. Two players are still on the course in Greg Koch and Justin Suh, and Koch is exactly on the cut line at +2. If he were to make birdie from his current spot in a fairway bunker, the line would move to +1. But for now it looks like we’ll have 72 or 73 players at +2 or better teeing off on Saturday morning.

Update 4:40 p.m. It is simply rock hard out there, and we basically haven’t seen an iron spin on a green all day. The cut line is now +2, with 73 players on that number or better, and 10 on it exactly.

That does mean Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, and Gary Woodland will be amongst the players not around for the weekend.

Update 12:40 p.m. As expected, the number is dropping as the afternoon makes the track and greens more asphalt-like. It’s now +1 to play the weekend, with 79 players at that number or better, and 14 at +1 exactly.

Both Collin Morikawa and Sepp Straka are in the clubhouse at +3, and their chances of spending Saturday in Orlando are slim. The same for Troy Merritt and Billy Horschel at +4.

Right now the cut line is even par, with exactly 65 players on that number or better, and 12 of them with level par on their scorecard at this moment. But with extremely firm and fast conditions (to the point they had to intentionally slow the greens down for today’s play) and things getting even harder in the afternoon, the line getting to +1 or higher certainly seems likely.

Who is not projected to make the cut?

Joel Dahmen has been the star of the new Netflix series Full Swing, but he won’t be the star this weekend as he’s at +8 thru 12 on Friday. Kevin Kisner at +11 is also scrambling and can head to Ponte Vedra Beach for some practice rounds at TPC Sawgrass for next week shortly.

The biggest surprise is Collin Morikawa, who is +3 thru his 14th hole today (he started on No. 10), and is unlikely to play the weekend as well.