In a battle of the Western Conference’s top two seeds, the Memphis Grizzlies (38-23) will head to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Nuggets (44-19). With approximately 20 regular season games left to play, Memphis remains five games back of Denver and can gain valuable ground in a crowded conference if the Grizzlies can pull off the road upset at Ball Arena.
For the visiting Grizzlies, the injury report is not too crowded for this point in the season. Steven Adams (knee) is still out, as he has not suited up since January 22. For the Nuggets, Michael Porter, Jr. (heel) is probable for Friday night while Aaron Gordon is questionable.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Nuggets are juiced 5-point favorites (-115) in their own building. The combined point total is set at 234, which is the third highest total of Friday night’s 10-game slate. On the moneyline, the Grizzlies are priced at +165 to pull off the upset, while Denver is -195 to win straight up.
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nuggets -5
With both sides coming off road wins over the Houston Rockets their last time out, the Western conference No. 1 and No. 2 seeds each have short winning streaks on the line. However, the natural home court advantage for the Nuggets at Ball Arena (not just the raucous fan base, but the playing altitude of 5,280 feet) is enough for me to lean into Denver. This will be the third head-to-head contest between the Nuggets and Grizzlies this season after splitting the first two games. The Nuggets are 21-10-1 ATS at home.
Over/Under: Under 234
As mentioned above, 234 points for Grizzlies-Nuggets is the third highest total on the board through 10 games on Friday. Keeping that in mind, the previous two head-to-head games between Memphis and Denver have resulted in 196 (in Denver on December 20) and 206 (in Memphis last week), which falls comfortably under Friday night’s 234. Give me the under again.