Handicapping ‘Scream 6’ from who the killer will be to who dies in opening scene

We love a good “Whodunit?” Perhaps the most famous of the “Whodunits?” in pop culture history is the Scream movie franchise. Fans were blessed enough to have the franchise rebooted by Radio Silence back in 2020 with Scream 5 released last year. Now, we’ve got the latest movie set to release on March 10, Scream 6 or ScreaVI. So now that we’ve got another movie, we’re going to try and handicap who the killer will be this time around based on casting and what we know of the characters.

Note: These are completely hypothetical odds and are not actual offerings on DraftKings Sportsbook. There are also Scream 5 spoilers below.

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Scream 6 predictions/odds

Killer odds

Tara Carpenter (Jenna Ortega) +100
Ethan (Jack Champion) +200
Dr. Christopher Stone (Henry Czerny) +250
Kirby Reed (Hayden Panettiere) +300
Other (not listed in cast) +350
Danny Brackett (Josh Segarra) +400
Sam Carpenter (Melissa Barrera) +500
Detective Bailey (Dermot Mulroney) +550
Gale Weathers (Courtney Cox) +600
Mindy Meeks (Jasmin Savoy Brown) +700
Chad Meeks (Mason Gooding) +850
Jason Carvey (Tony Revolori) +1500
Anika (Devyn Nekoda) +2000
Quinn Bailey (Liana Liberato) +2500
Laura Crane (Samara Weaving) +3000
Frankie (Andre Anthony) +5000
Brooks (Thomas Cadrot) +7500

Update — I’ve moved Tara up into the favorite to be the killer along with Ethan. Also going to move Mindy up a bit since our Culture Editor Murjani Rawls is high on her to be involved in the killings this time around, based on her horror background from the 5cream.

So let’s start at the top. Samara Weaving is arguably the biggest name being added to the cast outside Panettiere's return and Dermot Mulroney. If we learned anything from Scream 5, big names usually play well as the killer. Jack Quaid (Richie) and Mikey Madison (Amber) were the killers in Scream 5 (sorry for spoilers).

Quaid had been gaining adoration for his role as Hughie in the Amazon series The Boys. Madison appeared as one of Charles Manson’s disciples in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, by writer/director Quentin Tarantino. Madison was lit on fire in both movies. Both had name value and chops for playing “crazy”.

Sidebar: I recorded a podcast for Scream 5 and was half-right predicting the killers. I had Tara and Amber as the killers. We’ll get into Tara a bit later on.

So, back to Weaving. She’s great in most mainstream horror she’s appeared in. If you haven’t seen The Babysitter on Netflix and Ready or Not?, also directed by Radio Silence, go check them out. Weaving absolutely has the chops to play “crazy” and give us a great killer monologue in the last act of Scream 6. My only concern with Weaving being the killer is Drew Barrymore.

In the original Scream, Barrymore was all over the posters and viewed as the star of the movie. She was killed in the opening scene. Ortega’s Tara survived the opening scene of Scream 5. My feeling is Radio Silence goes back to a good old-fashioned kill scene for Scream 6. Weaving could be the opening death if they wanted to throw everyone off. If she isn’t, my guess is she’s a killer.

Everyone is talking up Champion, and he’s kind of the sleeper to be the killer. Champion was recently in James Cameron’s Avatar sequel and has been cast in a lot of high-profile projects coming up. Scream 6 could be a “coming out party” for him, getting to flex some acting finesse as a killer.

Philippe Bossé / Paramount Pictures

Sam, Tara, and Gale are all interesting options, though the trailer suggests it isn’t any of them. Gale is seen being attacked by Ghostface in one of the trailers and in some scenes that appear later in the film. That definitely rules out Gale being the opening scene death. Could she be involved in some capacity? Sure. She’s been through a lot and has always taken advantage of these killings in each movie.

We know darkness is brewing in Sam, and there was some suspicion of Tara in Scream 5. Sam has some connection to her late father, Billy Loomis, and is on some anti-psychotics. Is this when she finally breaks? As for Tara, she was very close with Amber in Scream 5, and even her sister had some suspicions at the end of that movie. Was Tara involved in the killings in Scream 5, and we didn’t know?

Tara certainly has plenty of motive and hers would be similar to Loomis in the original movie, being abandoned by her father after what Sam did. Was there a reason Tara survived the opening scene attack in Scream 5? She was best friends with Amber and maybe they had to sell the initial attack as to not arise suspicion.

I have a theory that could mean Henry Czerny is involved somehow. We’ll get to that a bit more in some other content. Mulroney certainly has the acting experience, but one can assume his daughter gets killed during the killings. This may be what motivates him to assist in finding out who is responsible. Also if we look back at cops in past Scream movies, generally they aren’t involved (Patrick Dempsey, Scream 3; Marley Shelton, Scream 4 and 5; Adam Brody, Anthony Anderson, Scream 4).

Mindy and Chad might be based on continuity. If anything, Mindy would be the killer in conjunction with her obsession with horror movies, similar to Randy. Chad would be one hell of a wild card pick, but I don’t see it.

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Will there be more than one killer?

Yes -10000
No - +5000

In five movies, just once was there a lone killer. In Scream, it was Billy Loomis and Stu Macher. In Scream 2, it was Billy’s mom (Laurie Metcalf) and Mickey (Timothy Olyphant). In Scream 4, it was Jill (Emma Roberts) and Charlie (Rory Culkin). In Scream 5, it was Richie and Amber. Only in Scream 3 was it one killer, Sidney Prescott’s long lost brother Roman Bridger, played by Scott Foley.

The third movie is arguably the worst in the series. There’s a very slim chance it’s one killer in Scream 6. Given the number of characters and what we know from the trailers, we will likely see more than two killers than just one.

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Who dies in the Opening Scene?

Laura Crane (Samara Weaving) -200
Quinn (Liana Liberato) +100
Jason (Tony Revolori) +250
Other +300

This is tricky. Laura (Weaving) makes the most sense if we think back to Scream and Barrymore. My guess is Weaving being the high-profile secondary character who was cast makes her the most likely to be the death in the opening scene. It’s sort of a big gamble though. As I alluded to above, if Weaving isn’t dead in the first like 10-15 minutes of the film, she’s definitely going to hang around until the end. There’s also the chance she’s a false death in the beginning to throw everyone off (though that seems a bit farfetched).

Quinn and Jason are next in line. We see Revolori briefly in one of the trailers, same with Liberato. The three listed above are all portrayed the least in the trailers, which could go either way, right? It could mean they aren’t important and die early on. It could be a tactic of misdirection. It feels the only one that fits for is Weaving. So if it isn’t her, bank on it being either Quinn or Jason who dies first.

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Will anyone in the non-cast show up in the movie?

Yes -2000
No +4000

Surprises are always fun and there are a ton of ways the directors and writers can work in outside characters. For starters, Sidney Prescott (Neve Campbell) is apparently not in the movie for the first time in franchise history. This was over a pay dispute with the studio, which seems like a convenient way to hide her role in Scream 6. Do I think this is the first Scream movie without Sidney Prescott? No. It’s not a Scream movie without Sidney Prescott, so I think she’ll be in it in some capacity.

Speaking of Sidney, we find out her husband “Mark” mentioned in Scream 5 is actually Mark Kincaid, the detective on the LAPD played by Patrick Dempsey in Scream 3. Would it be all that surprising to see him involved? He’d have somewhat of a motive. All the killings have affected his wife and they have kids. Perhaps Kincaid wants to finish all of it once and for all.

There’s plenty of mention of Christina, who went to high school with Sidney and the original cast and is the mother of Sam and Tara. This could be the time we are introduced to her in some capacity. Same goes for Tara’s father.

Then we get to the Macher family. Many believe Stu Macher is still alive (myself included). Will he be in Scream 6? Chances are if he did survive in the first movie, he’s still in jail or just getting out. A lot of people are theorizing that there’s some sort of Ghostface cult involved in Scream 6. The leader of said cult could be Stu from jail or the outside.

We know the Macher family will be involved in this trilogy based on Scream 5, where Vince Schneider, Stu’s nephew, is murdered by Ghostface early in the movie. Vince was the son of Leslie Macher, so will she show up in Scream 6? Might it be Leslie’s husband? Or a sibling of Vince’s? All seem to be on the table. One of the cast members could be related to Stu secretly.