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Picks, predictions for Iowa State vs. Baylor in Big 12 Second Round on Thursday

The Big 12 is so preposterously loaded that this is a 4-5 game!

NCAA Basketball: Iowa State at Baylor Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

The Big 12 Tournament will look a bit different next year, with several schools leaving and joining the changing conference. But two teams that will remain matchup in the quarterfinal round as the No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones take on the No. 4 Baylor Bears. The game is set for Thursday, March 9 from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, and tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s take a look at the odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook and make some picks.

Iowa State vs. Baylor odds in Big-12 Second Round

Spread: Baylor -4.5
Over/Under: 134
Moneyline: Baylor -190, Iowa State +160

Iowa State (18-12) went 9-9 in the conference this year, led by senior guard Jaren Holmes who is averaging 13.2 points. 3.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game this season. The Cyclones were an interesting case, playing very well at home going 13-3, but just 5-9 away from Ames this season. The Cyclones rank No. 6 in adjusted defense via KenPom, and have played the second-most difficult schedule in all of college basketball this season.

Baylor (22-9) is one of the better teams in the league, but attrition over the past few years has this team looking different than the one that won the 2021 National Championship. Senior guard Adam Flagler is leading the way for the Bears, averaging 15 points per game and shooting 41 percent from deep on the year. As a team the Bears average 77.3 points per game while holding its opponents to 70 per contest.

Iowa State +4.5

Iowa State won both games the two teams played this season, including the last game in the regular season 73-58 in Waco. While it’s hard to beat a team three times in one season, a back-to-back setting like this one should favor the better seed. The Cyclones won both games pretty handily, so they should be able to cover the spread in this one, but Baylor gets the win.