clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Picks, predictions for Mississippi State vs. Florida in SEC Tournament Second Round

The Bulldogs are slight favorites over the Gators in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. College Basketball expert Erik Buchinger gives his pick.

NCAA Basketball: Texas A&M at Mississippi State Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

The Mississippi State Bulldogs will meet the Florida Gators in the second round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday afternoon. The game will tip off at 1:00 p.m. ET from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee and can be seen on SEC Network.

My college hoops picks went 21-13-2 over the last two weeks, so let’s take a look at the odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook and make some picks.

Mississippi State vs. Florida odds in SEC Second Round

Spread: Mississippi State -3
Over/Under: 131
Moneyline: Mississippi State -165, Florida +140

Mississippi State (20-11, 8-10 SEC) ended a two-game winning streak with a 77-72 road loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores in the regular season finale on Saturday. Tolu Smith went off for 27 points on 9-of-17 shooting from the floor with 11 rebounds. The Bulldogs rate 46th in KenPom as a completely one-sided team with a defense rated seventh in adjusted efficiency, while the offensive end checks in at 158th nationally.

Florida (16-15, 8-10 SEC) won the final two games of the regular season including Saturday’s 79-67 home victory over the LSU Tigers. Riley Kugel scored a game-high 21 points on 4-of-7 shooting from deep in the win. The Gators lost three straight when their top player Colin Castleton went down for the season with an injury before stringing together a couple victories. Florida rates 60th in KenPom with a defense that rates 32nd in adjusted efficiency, while the offense is 113th.

The Pick: Mississippi State -3

I like siding with decent teams after a loss, and that’s what we’ve got with Mississippi State on Thursday afternoon. The Bulldogs are squarely on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, so a loss could be devastating for their March Madness hopes. This is also a decent revenge spot as Mississippi State lost to a Gators team that had a healthy Castleton 61-59 at home in January.