Betting trends: How to approach betting Florida Atlantic based on their ATS record

The No. 9 FAU Owls have done the nearly-impossible and reached the program’s first Final Four in tournament history. They will face No. 5 San Diego State on Saturday, April 1 at the NRG Arena in Houston for a bid at a national title game. The Owls enter as 2-point underdogs here, so let’s take a look on how to bet this matchup.

FAU ATS record

Season: 21-10-1
NCAA Tournament: 3-1

The Owls have been an underdog three times in this tournament (Memphis +1.5, Tennessee +4.5, Kansas State +1) and, by virtue of their continued presence in the tournament, have covered all three. They failed to cover a 16-point spread as favorites over Fairleigh Dickinson in the second round.

They have covered an impressive amount of spreads this season, and were 2-1-1 in the regular season against teams that ranked 60 or higher in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

How to bet FAU vs. San Diego State in Final Four

The numbers show that FAU has been excellent all season at covering the spread. But the reality of the situation is that the Owls rank in the top 15 nationally in three-pointers per game, and San Diego State ranks third in three-point percentage defense. They are a better defense than FAU has faced by far this season, ranking third in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. The Aztecs have been impossible to get by in this tournament, and their defense just may be perfectly suited to shut down FAU. I would avoid betting FAU to cover here.