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Update: Adebayo has officially been ruled out for the Heat, and the lines have shifted. The Mavericks are 2-point favorites in this game and we’re actually going to maintain our ATS pick on the Heat and take the points. The total still sits at 224.5, and we’ll still take the over on that number.
The Dallas Mavericks (37-40) hope to climb back into the play-in picture when they meet the Miami Heat (40-37), who are in contention for the No. 6 seed in the East themselves attempting to avoid the play-in tournament. The Mavericks enter this contest losing five of their last six games, while the Heat are on a three-game skid.
The Mavericks have a clean injury report entering the day. The Heat have listed Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry as questionable, although both are expected to suit up.
The Heat are 1-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The total comes in at 224.5. Miami is -120 on the moneyline while Dallas sits at +100.
Mavericks vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Heat -1
Neither team has been good of late. The Mavericks have covered just once in the last four games, while the Heat have failed to cover in the last three games. Miami has a 12-25-2 ATS mark at home but the Heat are 25-14 straight up there. This is essentially a pick ‘em, and the Mavericks are in a bad funk right now. Dallas is 15-24 away from home, so the Heat really should be able to get the win here and cover.
Over/Under: Over 224.5
These teams have been surprisingly ordinary defensively since the All-Star break. The Mavericks rank 18th in points allowed per game, while the Heat sit at 15th in the same category. Dallas has gone under its total in the last four games but three of those lines were above 230. Miami is 2-2 on over/under in the last four games. The Mavericks have been decent offensively since the All-Star break, ranking 11th in points per game. Miami is 27th but should be able to take advantage of Dallas’ subpar defense. It’ll be close, but I’ll lean towards the over in this one.