Pick on the moneyline for Florida Atlantic-San Diego State on April 1

Not a lot of brackets had a Final Four matchup of the San Diego State Aztecs and Florida Atlantic Owls, but both teams will do battle from NRG Stadium In Houston on Saturday to decide who will compete in Monday’s national championship game.

Florida Atlantic Owls vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-2.5, 131.5)

Versatility has served Florida Atlantic well all season as Conference USA had teams that played at completely different styles. The Owls are 170th out of 363 Division I teams in possessions per game while playing Charlotte and North Texas in conference, who were two of the three slowest teams in the nation in possessions per game and also UAB, Rice, and Florida International, three of the top 55 teams in the country in most possessions per game.

The variety of styles Florida Atlantic has faces means they will not be rattled going against a San Diego State team that is 254th in possessions per game and has allowed 64 points or fewer in nine straight games.

Overall this season, San Diego State ranks 14th in the country in points allowed per possession, but Florida Atlantic has better balance, ranking 15th in points scored per possession and 20th in points allowed per possession.

Much of San Diego State’s offense during the NCAA Tournament has come on offensive rebounds, with the Aztecs overall 62nd in the country in percentage of misses that result in an offensive rebound. These second chances will be limited on Saturday as the Owls rank 10th in rebound rate away from home.

Even with San Diego State being the nation’s top 3-point shooting defense in games played away from home, with opponents shooting 27.3% from 3-point range in games away from home, their defense should see regression as they have allowed opponents to go just 5-of-44 from 3-point range in the past two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

The Owls are also one of the top 3-point shooting defenses in the nation, ranked 13th in opponent 3-point shooting away from home, which will limit a San Diego State offense that is 275th in the country in 2-point shooting percentage in games played away from home.

While the most dominant core in this game is San Diego State’s defense, the Owls have the more balanced lineup and the experience of playing a wide range of teams all season long will be to Florida Atlantic’s advantage and get them to Monday’s National Championship game.

The Play: Florida Atlantic Moneyline +125

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