Fresh off an impressive series win against the Baltimore Orioles, the New York Yankees head to Cleveland to kick off a rematch of last year’s ALDS thriller against the Guardians on Monday. Domingo German (0-1, 7.71 ERA) goes for New York while the Guardians will roll with ace Shane Bieber (0-0, 2.25 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET.
The Guardians are currently listed as -150 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook while the Yankees check in as +130 underdogs. The run total is set at 7.5.
Yankees-Guardians picks: Monday, April 10th
Out: 3B Josh Donaldson (hamstring), RP Jonathan Loaisiga (elbow), OF Harrison Bader (oblique), RP Lou Trivino (elbow)
Out: RP Sam Hentges (shoulder), SP Triston McKenzie (shoulder)
Domingo German vs. Shane Bieber
German won a starting rotation job for the Yankees almost by default this spring after injuries to Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas pressed him into action. His first outing of 2023 didn’t inspire a ton of confidence, as he allowed four runs on four hits (including two homers) in 4.2 innings of work. At this point, it feels like we know who German is: a back-end option who won’t strike out too many batters but can at least keep your team in the game over a few innings.
Bieber, meanwhile, has looked like his Cy Young self so far, blanking the Seattle Mariners over six innings on Opening Day and then giving up three runs over six frames against the Oakland Athletics last week. His velocity still isn’t what it was at his peak, but he’s deemphasized the pitch in favor of his elite breaking balls to great effect. If there’s a downside here, it’s his spotty history against the Yankees: New York has touched him up to the tune of a 5.74 ERA over three starts in his career.
This number feels a bit low, to be honest. Bieber is among the sturdiest arms in the game, but the Yankees have seemed to have his number of late — including each of the last two times these teams have met in the postseason. The contact-happy Guardians seem to be a bad match for German, who isn’t going to miss many bats, so eight total runs doesn’t seem too high a hurdle.
Pick: Over 7.5
The Yankees have a checkered history at Progressive Field (please never say the word “midge” in the greater tri-state area) and it’s awfully hard to trust German at this point. New York’s lineup could win them this game on their own, but our money is on Bieber and Cleveland.