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The Atlanta Hawks will travel to take on the Miami Heat in the first round of the NBA play-in tournament. Because these two teams are the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds, they will have a chance to make the playoffs even with a loss. The loser will play the winner of the No. 9 seed and No. 10 seed game in a win-or-go-home scenario. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Kaseya Center in Miami.
Here we’ll take a look at one potential DFS strategy for Showdown contests on DraftKings involving this matchup with Captain’s picks, flex plays and fades.
Captain’s Picks
Trae Young ($15,600) - It’s the most expensive option, but for good reason. Young has playoff experience and knows what he needs to do to win games like these. He will be scoring and dishing out assists. He had some down games in the regular season, but he knows the moment is too big for the let down spot tonight. Expect tremendous usage for the Hawks guard.
Bam Adebayo ($12,300) - With Jimmy Butler’s price being high, I think Adebayo is a good value play here. He has had success against the Hawks this season as he’s scored 30+ points against them in two of the four matchups they have had. For the Heat to win this matchup, Adebayo will have to be heavily involved offensively. The Hawks are not great against centers in DFS as they’re allowing 54.62 DFS points, which is the ninth most in the NBA.
FLEX Plays
Saddiq Bey ($9,600) - Bey has been a great addition to the Hawks lineup. He does a lot of dirty work for them and was quietly one of the best additions at the trade deadline. He’s scored 22+ DFS points in six of their last seven games including four of those games being 30+ DFS points.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($8,700) - Bogdanovic has played in two postseasons with the Hawks already. They will need him to knock down some shots if they want any chance in this road matchup. The Heat will be going all out to stop Dejounte Murray and Young which should open the court up for Bogdanovic. If he can get going from beyond the arc, he will deliver excellent value at this price point.
Fades
Tyler Herro ($11,100) - Herro’s had major struggles against the Hawks this season and is an expensive option. He’s not worth it with the numbers he has put up. Against point guards, the Hawks have been decent defensively and Murray will be guarding him tonight which will present a tough matchup. I expect a quiet game from Herro in this one.
Max Strus ($9,300) - Strus is in a similar boat to Herro. He has had struggles against the Heat this season and I don't see him stepping up in the play-in game out of nowhere. Strus is also dealing with a finger injury, although he’s probable. While he will play, he could be a little off dealing with the injury.
The Outcome
I think this game is a nail-biter for both sides, but the home team comes out on top. All four matchups between these teams were tight matchups as none were double-digit victories for either side. I think it’s tight all game and Miami gets a bucket in the final seconds to secure the victory and the No. 7 seed in the 2023 NBA playoffs.
Final score: Heat 106, Hawks 104