It has been a slow start for the St. Louis Cardinals, entering their series on the road against the Colorado Rockies with a 3-6 record after being the consensus favorite at multiple sportsbooks to win the National League Central in the preseason. The Cards will look to bounce back on Tuesday.
St. Louis Cardinals (-170, 11.5) vs. Colorado Rockies
After being an All-Star in 2022, Miles Mikolas has started the 2023 season with a pair of rough starts, allowing five runs in each, both of which resulted in losses for the Cardinals.
Mikolas’ struggles stem back to the end of the 2022 season, as he’s posted a 4.93 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed in his last 16 appearances, including 10 runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings in his last start at Coors Field in August 2022.
The Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland, who has not allowed a run in his two starts across 12 2/3 innings, leading the team to two of the four wins they had this season entering the series.
For his career, Freeland has had an elevated ERA at home, posting a 4.69 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine allowed at home compared to a 3.73 road ERA with one home run per nine innings allowed.
Despite the raw numbers at home being worse for Freeland, he has a lifetime 29-24 home record compared to a 22-27 road record due to how much the ballpark’s elevation has inflated the offense.
Last season, the Rockies led the league in runs per game at home while being the lone MLB team to average fewer than three runs per game on the road.
Colorado typically has the most extreme home and road splits in the league and is coming off a 2022 season in which it went 41-40 at home and 27-54 on the road.
After being last among all MLB teams in bullpen ERA last season, the offseason acquisitions of Brad Hand and Pierce Johnson should pay dividends and give Freeland and the Rockies enough help to scratch out a win on Tuesday.
The Play: Rockies +145