After splitting the first two of their three-game set this week, the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies are ready for the rubber game on Wednesday, April 12th, with first pitch set for 3:10 p.m. ET. Jack Flaherty (1-1, 1.80) will take the ball for the Cards, while Jose Urena (0-2, 14.40) goes for the Rockies.
St. Louis checks in as -170 favorites on the moneyline at Draftkings Sportsbook, while Colorado sits as +145 underdogs. The run total is by far the highest of the day’s slate at a whopping 13.
Cardinals-Rockies picks: Wednesday, April 12th
Day to day: OF Dylan Carlson (neck)
Out: SP Adam Wainwright (groin), OF Lars Nootbaar (thumb), RP Packy Naughton (forearm), SS Paul DeJong (back), C Tres Barrera (knee), RP Wilking Rodriguez (shoulder), INF Jose Fermin (quad)
Day to day: 3B Elehuris Montero (thumb)
Out: SP German Marquez (forearm), RP Daniel Bard (anxiety), OF Randal Grichuk (sports hernia), SP Antonio Senzatela (knee), RP Tyler Kinley (elbow), INF Brendan Rodgers (shoulder), OF Sean Bouchard (biceps)
Jack Flaherty vs. Jose Urena
Flaherty’s top-line numbers look like a return to his previous All-Star form, but don’t be fooled. There are serious red flags here, starting with his astronomical walk rate — Flaherty has walked 13 batters (most in the Majors thus far) in just 10 innings, while only striking out seven. He managed to dance out of trouble against the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays, but he may not be so lucky in Coors Field unless he exhibits much better command. On the other hand, his velocity has been ticking back up where it was before the shoulder injuries that have derailed his career, so if the control does click into place he could excel.
Of course, he’s facing a starter in Urena who somehow has an even higher walk rate, as the Rockies righty has issued seven free passes in just five innings over two starts. As you can probably guess from that low innings number, those two outings have not gone well, with a combined eight earned runs and three homers allowed. Things could get ugly against a loaded Cardinals lineup.
Yes, 13 is an enormous number, but consider that the first two games of this series featured 11 and 15 runs — and that was with far better pitchers than Urena on the hill for Colorado. The over has been a safe bet across the league so far this year as the new rules have goosed run production, and I’m betting it cashes again here despite the high bar.
Pick: Over 13
There’s just no way you can trust Urena to not implode in this spot. The Rockies may get to Flaherty a bit, but St. Louis should be able to win this one.