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Lexington Stakes 2023: Morning line odds, picks and predictions for Kentucky Derby preview

The road to the Kentucky Derby is close to wrapping up. We have some picks and predictions for Saturday’s Lexington Stakes.

Keeneland Blue Grass Stakes Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

The 2023 Lexington Stakes will be held Saturday, April 15 at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. This is a Grade III prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. It will be contested on a 1 1/16 track and it’s the final qualifying race of the season.

Given its current status as a Wild Card qualifier, there aren’t too many notable winners over the past 20 years and none that made much of a dent in the Triple Crown races. It’s mostly for three-year-olds hoping to fill out the final spots in the 20-horse field at the Kentucky Derby as a longshot.

The 1990s was a different story, as the Lexington Stakes was a final speed test for Triple Crown favorites. Charismatic won the Lexington Stakes in 1999 and went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, only missing out on a the Triple Crown when he fractured his foreleg down the stretch at the Belmont Stakes. Touch Gold won the event in 1997 and went to edge out Silver Charm in the Belmont Stakes and end that horse’s opportunity at a Triple Crowd. Hansel won the race in 1991 and went on to win the Preakness and Belmont.

As for this year’s race Arabian Lion, the morning line favorite, is considered a mid-range possibility in the Preakness, because of the shorter distance. It probably doesn’t have the energy to run the Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes in a challenging position. A win here for Arabian Lion would be a nice feather in the cap. The other morning line favorite, Disarm needs the win to lock up a post spot in the Derby. This is going to be a favorites race with Disarm going over First Mission and Arabian Lion likely to be a popular ticket. For live sleepers the odds on Reinvest will be closer to 20-1 at post time and Prairie Hawk has run well in sprints.

2023 Lexington Stakes post positions with morning line

  1. Baseline Beater (20-1)
  2. Reinvest (30-1)
  3. Demolition Duke (6-1)
  4. Transect (30-1)
  5. First Mission (3-1)
  6. Disarm (7-2)
  7. Denington (20-1)
  8. Empirestrikesfast (4-1)
  9. Prairie Hawk (15-1)
  10. Curly Larry and Mo (50-1)
  11. Arabian Lion (7-2)