Picks, predictions for Rangers vs. Royals on Wednesday, April 19th

After two commanding wins, the Texas Rangers are going for a series sweep on the road against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday afternoon. Martin Perez (2-1, 2.87 ERA) will start for Texas while Brady Singer (1-1, 7.88) gets the ball for the home team. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 2:10 p.m. ET.

These teams are dead-even on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with both listed at -110. The run total is set at 9.5.

Rangers-Royals picks: Wednesday, April 19th

Injury report

Rangers

Day to day: SP Jacob deGrom (wrist)

Out: C Mitch Garver (knee), SS Corey Seager (hamstring)

Royals

Out: SP Kris Bubic (flexor tendon strain), OF Drew Waters (oblique), OF Daniel Lynch (rotator cuff)

Starting pitchers

Martin Perez vs. Brady Singer

It hasn’t always been pretty for Perez this year — his 5.10 FIP is far uglier than his 2.87 ERA — but the lefty has built off of his breakout 2022 for Texas despite a tough opening schedule (vs. the Philadelphia Phillies and then at the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros). He doesn’t yet have the same feel for his cutter that made it such an effective pitch for him last year, but there’s no reason he can’t get that ironed out as the season progresses.

I’m no sabermetrician, but I don’t think this is what you want your Statcast page to look like:

Singer has taken an enormous step back after a promising 2022 in which he went 10-5 with a 3.23 ERA. Granted, his last start came against the Atlanta Braves’ death star of a lineup, but the fact remains that Singer’s sinker — basically 50 percent of his arsenal — is generating much more hard contact and far fewer whiffs than it did last year.

Over/Under pick

With a 12-2 barrage yesterday, the Rangers have now cleared this run total in eight of their last 10 games. Given how well Texas is swinging the bats — and how hard Singer’s been hit so far this year — we’re taking the over until proven otherwise.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

There’s just no way to trust Singer right now, especially not with a weak lineup supporting him. Perez may not be his sharpest self just yet, but he should do just enough to get a win with plenty of run support behind him.

Pick: Rangers