Picks, predictions for Dodgers vs. Cubs on Friday, April 21

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs meet for the second game of a four-game weekend set on Friday afternoon, after L.A. took the opener at Wrigley Field in dramatic fashion last night. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. It’s a battle of lefties on the mound, as ace Julio Urias (3-1, 1.90 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers against Chicago’s Drew Smyly (1-1, 4.70).

The Dodgers are -175 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Cubs are +150 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.5.

Dodgers-Cubs picks: Friday, April 21

Injury report

Dodgers
Out: C Will Smith (concussion), SP Tony Gonsolin (left ankle sprain), SP Ryan Pepiot (left oblique strain), SS Miguel Rojas (left hamstring strain)

Cubs
Out: SP Kyle Hendricks (right shoulder strain)

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias vs. Drew Smyly

Quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last couple of years, Urias is at it again in 2023, with a microscopic 1.90 ERA and a 10 K/9 over four starts. He won’t blow you away on the radar gun, but he’s got among the most balanced arsenals you’ll see — with a changeup that allows him to be effective against both lefties and righties. He finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting last year and just might take home the hardware this season if he keeps pitching like this.

After a rough season-opener in a tough spot at the Cincinnati Reds — seven runs (six earned) on nine hits in just 4.2 innings — Smyly has had it working over his last couple starts. He allowed just one run over five innings while striking out seven against the Seattle Mariners, then stymied these very same Dodgers over 5.2 frames of one-run ball last weekend. Smyly is basically a two-pitch pitcher, but when he’s on, he’s elevating his fastball to set up a devastating curveball that batters are whiffing on 34 percent of the time this year.

Over/Under pick

It took a James Outman grand slam in the ninth inning for these teams to reach eight runs last night, and I think we’re headed towards the under again this afternoon. Urias hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his starts this year, while Smyly looks capable of at least holding his own into the middle innings. (Plus, a day game after a night game with neither team having the benefit of a recent off-day could mean some wonky lineups here.)

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

Urias is just a very hard man to beat right now — L.A. is 3-1 in his four starts, with the one loss coming against Chicago last weekend — and I think he gets his revenge on the Cubs this afternoon in a relatively low-scoring affair.

Pick: Dodgers