After splitting the first two games of their four-game set, the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks get set for round three from Chase Field in Phoenix on Saturday night. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. After fracturing his toe in a weightlifting accident this spring, Joe Musgrove will finally make his season debut for the Friars, while Merrill Kelly (1-2, 2.53 ERA) will go for the D-backs.
San Diego is a -145 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Diamondbacks are +125 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.5.
Padres-Diamondbacks picks: Saturday, April 22
Out: C Luis Campusano (left thumb sprain), RP Drew Pomeranz (flexor tendon surgery), OF Adam Engel (left hamstring strain), OF David Dahl (right quad strain), RP Robert Suarez (right elbow inflammation), RP Nabil Crismatt (hip)
Out: SP Zach Davies (strained left oblique), C Carson Kelly (right distal ulna fracture), OF Kyle Lewis (illness), RP Mark Melancon (right shoulder)
Joe Musgrove vs. Merrill Kelly
Musgrove made his first All-Star team last year, finally making good on the immense promise he’d shown with the Pittsburgh Pirates earlier in his career. The righty probably won’t be fully stretched out after ramping up slowly this spring, but he has a 3.83 ERA over nine starts against Arizona in his career.
Kelly’s results so far this year probably overstate how good he’s been — his FIP is a run and a half higher than his ERA — but the righty remains a sturdy innings eater who can keep his team in any game. Walks have been an issue thus far, though: Kelly has issued 12 free passes through four starts, although he didn’t walk anyone in six innings of one-run ball against the St. Louis Cardinals last time out. The righty is 8-2 with a career 2.61 ERA in 13 starts against San Diego.
Even with Fernando Tatis Jr. back, this offense has struggled, with just nine runs scored in its last six games. Combine that with Musgrove on the mound for San Diego, and the under seems like a strong play.
Pick: Under 9.5
Musgrove may be a little rusty, but he’s still among the best righties in baseball, and I trust him to hold down the Diamondbacks’ lineup while Tatis Jr. finally breaks out with a late homer to push the Padres over the top.