Picks, predictions for Red Sox vs. Brewers on Sunday, April 23

After splitting two tightly contested games at American Family Field in Milwaukee, the Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers will each be looking for a series win in the finale on Sunday afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Top prospect Brayan Bello (0-1, 16.88 ERA) will be making his second start of the season for Boston, while Corbin Burnes (2-1, 4.76) is set to take the mound for the Brewers after an injury scare that forced him to leave his last outing early.

Milwaukee is currently a -180 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Red Sox are +155 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Red Sox-Brewers picks: Sunday, April 23

Injury report

Red Sox

Day to day: C Reese McGuire (hand)

Out: OF Adam Duvall (wrist), RP Chris Martin (shoulder), SP James Paxton (hamstring), RP Joely Rodriguez (oblique)

Brewers

Out: OF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder), SP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder), OF Tyrone Taylor (elbow), SP/RP Adrian Houser (groin), INF Luis Urias (hamstring), SP Aaron Ashby (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Brayan Bello vs. Corbin Burnes

Bello finally made his 2023 debut on Patriots’ Day against the Los Angeles Angels after an elbow injury sidetracked his spring, and the numbers were ugly: five runs on eight hits in just 2.2 innings. Don’t judge him too harshly, though; the weather was brutal on Monday in Boston, and between that and some first-game rust it’s only natural that the righty struggled. He still boasts the arsenal that made him one of the Red Sox’ top prospects entering the year — namely an electric mid-90s fastball that he pairs with a genuine swing-and-miss changeup.

Bello still managed to strike out five against L.A., so the stuff is clearly still there.

Thankfully, Burnes seems no worse for wear after leaving his start against the Seattle Mariners with what turned out to be a pectoral tweak. He’s gotten off to a relatively slow start this year, with a rough couple of outings against the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets to start the season that featuered a troubling dip in velocity on his cutter, sinker and slider. Good news on that last front: Burnes’ velocity has been back up in his last two outings, the first of which was a dominant eight-inning effort against the Diamondbacks.

Over/Under pick

These teams have combined for 9 and 8 runs in the first two games of this series, so they’ll probably be right around this number again, but we’re taking the under here based on Burnes’ recent uptick in performance and Bello’s potential against a Brewers lineup that strikes out a ton against right-handed pitchers.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

Of course, there’s always the chance that Bello implodes again, and based on what we’ve seen from him over his last two starts, we have a lot more faith in Burnes to put together a quality start against a patchwork Boston lineup.

Pick: Brewers