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Update: There’s an expectation Antetokounmpo will play, and the Heat are likely going to have Butler and Adebayo in. The line is now Bucks -8 and we’re maintaining Milwaukee as the ATS pick. The total comes in at 219 and we’ll keep our bet on the over.
The Milwaukee Bucks will take on the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their playoff series Monday night. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Kaseya Center in Miami and will air on TNT. The Heat have won the last two games of the series and hope to take a commanding 3-1 lead tonight.
The injuries are stacking up in this series. Tyler Herro went down with a broken hand in Game 1 and will miss the rest of the playoffs. Victor Oladipo is also out for Miami with a season-ending knee injury.
Three of the biggest stars of the series in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo are all dealing with injuries as well. Adebayo is probable, so barring a surprise, he will play. Butler and Antetokounmpo are questionable and Antetokounmpo could miss his third straight game as he is dealing with a back injury from a hard fall in Game 1. I would expect both guys to play in what could be the most important game of the series.
The Bucks are 6-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the point total sits at 216. On the moneyline, the Bucks are -240 while the Heat are +200.
Bucks vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Bucks -6
Antetokounmpo should be back tonight which will give this team a needed boost. Once he is ruled active, this number will likely shoot up two points. The Bucks know they can't afford to go down 3-1 if they want to win this series. Milwaukee showed they could win without Antetokounmpo in Game 2, but they will need to step up on defense. Getting Antetokounmpo back immediately makes that defense much better.
During the regular season, the Heat were not this consistent offensively. The playoffs are a different animal, but I don't think the Heat can continue their consistent scoring. The Bucks have had their backs against the wall before including in the 2021 NBA Finals. They need to get the job done tonight. Look for Milwaukee to level this series.
Over/Under: Under 217
Every game in this series has gone over this total. The public will be hammering the over and that’s why I think we see a low-scoring game. Antetokounmpo could be back, so the Bucks will be solid defensively and the Heat are due for a letdown offensively. During the regular season, they would have scoring droughts all the time and finish games in the high 90’s to low 100’s. Expect more of that in this matchup.