Picks, predictions for Nationals vs. Mets on Thursday, April 27

Things aren’t going great for the New York Mets right now. After losing both games over the weekend to the San Francisco Giants, the Mets have dropped the first two games of their series against the lowly Washington Nationals. They’ll try to stop the bleeding today when they send Joey Lucchesi (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound against Trevor Williams (1-1, 3.38 ERA). First pitch from Citi Field is set for 7:10 p.m ET.

The Mets are -240 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Nationals are +200. The total is set at 8.5.

Nationals vs. Mets picks: Thursday, April 27

Injury report

Nationals

Out: OF Corey Dickerson (left calf strain), INF Ildemaro Vargas (left shoulder strain), 3B Carter Kieboom (Tommy John surgery), C Israel Pineda (right pinkie tip displacement)

Mets

Out: SP Justin Verlander (right teres major strain), RP Edwin Uceta (left ankle sprain), C Omar Narvaez (left calf strain), RP Stephen Nogosek (eight elbow bone bruise), SP Carlos Carrasco (right elbow inflammation), SP Elieser Hernandez (right shoulder strain), OF Tim Locasro (back spasms)

Starting pitchers

Joey Lucchesi vs. Trevor Willliams

Lucchesi made his season debut last week, where he tossed seven scoreless innings in his first start in two years after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. A sinker and curveball pitcher, Lucchesi had a 4.46 ERA in 38.1 innings in 2021 before getting injured.

Williams takes the ball against his former team, as he had a 3.21 ERA in 89.2 innings with the Mets last season. He’s coming off his best start of the year, as he allowed two runs in six innings against the Twins his last time out. He’s had good life on his fastball this season (.179 batting average against), but has struggled with his curveball, as he’s almost primarily thrown it to left-handers, who have hit . 412 against the pitch.

Over/Under pick

I’m letting the advanced stats guide my pick here, as Williams and Lucchesi both have expected ERAs that are more than two points higher than their actual ERA (5.74 for Williams, 3.99 for Lucchesi). This line hasn’t been cleared in either of the first two games of the series, but both offenses should get plenty of chances against two pitchers who pitch to contact.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

Today’s the day the Mets finally get it done. While their offense has looked lethargic over the past four days, they have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, and all it takes is one swing to break out of a funk. After being silenced the first two games of the series, the Mets offense should make some noise today.

Pick: Mets