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Will Levis had a 99.9% chance of being selected in first round, per ESPN Analytics

Will Levis fell out of the first round, but should he have been predicted to go there?

Will Levis #7 of the Kentucky Wildcats against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Kroger Field on November 12, 2022 in Lexington, Kentucky. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, but Friday night is when a lot of teams will improve their overall roster with savvy picks. One of those picks will likely be Kentucky quarterback Will Levis.

According to ESPN Analytics, Levis was a mortal lock to be picked in the first round. But what kind of “analytics” can you have about where a player is picked beforehand?

In reality, the “analytics” in play are based on expectations set by scouts, past picks, mock drafts, rumors and how the media frames those things. When you see “analytics” coupled with the NFL, many people will think of going for it on 4th down inside an opponent’s territory. That is a direct result of analytics showing coaches that on average it is better to go for it than not. These numbers are based on real life, on the field scenarios, that have played out thousands of times.

Levis is a second round quarterback. This has been shown by many draft analysts and scouts. He is a player who can be a starter in the NFL, but quarterbacks with his traits are often run-of-the-mill producers in the NFL. Expectations should have been set there instead of a media push for him to be the first or second pick. It makes for interesting headlines, but isn’t backed up by what people that know see on the field.