The Miami Marlins pulled out yet another close win on Friday, shocking the Chicago Cubs by the score of 3-2. Chicago will look to get revenge in a Saturday matinee from loanDepot Park in Miami. Mercurial righty Edward Cabrera (1-2, 4.91 ERA) will go for the home team, while Caleb Kilian will make his first start of the season for Chicago.
Miami is currently a -125 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Cubs are narrow +105 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.
Cubs-Marlins picks: Saturday, April 29
Out: SP Jameson Taillon (groin), SP Kyle Hendricks (shoulder), RP Ethan Roberts (elbow), RP Codi Heuer (elbow)
Out: SP Trever Rogers (forearm), RP JT Chargois (oblique), 2B Joey Wendle (oblique), SP Johnny Cueto (biceps), RP Tommy Nance (shoulder), RP Nic Enright (cancer), RP Anthony Bender (elbow), SP Max Meyer (elbow)
Caleb Kilian vs. Edward Cabrera
As the team waits for Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon to return, Kilian will make a spot start for the Cubs. The righty — who MLB Pipeline ranks as the No. 14 prospect in Chicago’s system — truggled to a 10.32 ERA over three starts in his first taste of MLB action last season and has a bloated 7.15 ERA at Triple-A so far this year. He doesn’t really have an offspeed offering, throwing mostly a four-seamer, sinker and cutter.
It’s been the same old story for Cabrera so far this year: electric stuff, not nearly enough command to make the most of it. The righty ranks in the 83rd percentile in whiff rate but the second percentile in walk rate, with a whopping 20 free passes over his first five starts. When he throws strikes, he can be very effective — he allowed four runs and just three walks while striking out 12 over 11 innings against the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies — but that’s an awfully big “if”.
Even against a weak Marlins offense, Kilian doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, while Cabrera’s wildness makes him hard to trust against a solid Cubs lineup. We could be seeing a lot of both of these shaky bullpens, which is a good thing for the over.
Pick: Over 9
I expect Chicago to only ask a few innings out of Kilian before turning it over the bullpen, while the bats should be looking to break out and avoid dropping the series (and further down the NL Central standings).