Picking the over/under for SDSU vs. UConn in the 2023 Men’s National Championship Game

The national championship has been set, and No. 5 San Diego State will take on No. 4 UConn at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Monday, April 3. The game will air on CBS at 9:20 p.m. ET.

The total is set at 132.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and UConn enters as a 7.5-point favorite.

SDSU vs. UConn: Over/Under pick

SDSU had been keeping opponents under 60 points for much of the tournament, allowing the most opposing points to Alabama with 64 in the Sweet Sixteen, but that defense slipped up in the Final Four. FAU took a 14-point lead at one point, and SDSU had to fight back to win 72-71 with a buzzer-beater and, for the first time this tournament, did not hit the under.

UConn had a fairly low-scoring game against Miami in the Final Four, scoring their second-lowest point total of the season in the 72-59 win over the Hurricanes. They continued to excel in shooting percentages, out-rebounded Miami 41-32, and despite losing in the steals and turnovers stat lines, never batted an eye in the game.

Pick: Over 132.5

This has a lot of potential to be a low-scoring game after UConn’s Final Four performance and with SDSU’s strong defense, but in a national championship game, I don’t see the under hitting here. It is a possibility, but if UConn gets going on offense — and I suspect they will — we should see the over hit on Monday night.

UConn has averaged 79.8 points per game this tournament, and San Diego State has averaged 67.6.