Picks, predictions for Guardians vs. Red Sox on Sunday, April 30

After the Boston Red Sox walked off in wild fashion in the 10th inning on Saturday, they’ll meet the Cleveland Guardians one more time at Fenway Park this afternoon for the rubber game of a very entertaining three-game set. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET. Logan Allen (1-0, 1.50 ERA) will be making the second start of his young career for Cleveland, while Boston hopes Chris Sale (1-2, 8.22) will be able to right the ship after a rocky start to 2023.

Boston is currently a -130 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Guardians are narrow +110 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.

Guardians-Red Sox picks: Sunday, April 30

Injury report

Guardians

Out: SP Aaron Civale (oblique), SP Triston McKenzie (shoulder), RP Sam Hentges (shoulder), SP Cody Morris (shoulder)

Red Sox

Out: 3B Yu Chang (wrist), RP Chris Martin (shoulder), RP Zack Kelly (elbow), OF Adam Duvall (wrist), RP Wyatt Mills (elbow), RP Joely Rodriguez (oblique), RP Jamex Paxton (hamstring), 2B Trevor Story (elbow), SS Adalberto Mondesi (knee)

Starting pitchers

Logan Allen vs. Chris Sale

Not to be confused with the Guardians’ other pitcher named Logan Allen, this Logan Allen got the call for his MLB debut last weekend against the Miami Marlins and excelled, striking out eight over six innings of one-run ball. Cleveland’s No. 8 prospect per MLB Pipeline, the lefty largely works off a four-seam fastball that he throws over 50 percent of the time. His velocity won’t blow anyone away, but he does a good job elevating it consistently, and it sets up a splitter that he largely throws to righties and a sweeper he uses to put away lefties.

The results haven’t been there for Sale in his return from two largely lost seasons due to injury, with ugly ratios and a career-high walk rate. The lefty looked like his old self two starts ago, striking out 11 against the Minnesota Twins, but followed that up with just one K and five earned runs on nine hits in three innings against the Baltimore Orioles. The swing and miss stuff is still there, and there are signs that he’s been a bit unlucky so far, so it’s not inconceivable that he turns it around.

Over/Under pick

Allen looked great in his first start, the Marlins are a far cry for Rafael Devers and Co. at Fenway Park, while it’s just too hard to assume that Sale won’t cough up at least three or four runs against a pesky Guardians lineup.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

I think Allen comes back to Earth a bit here now that big-league advanced scouts have gotten more tape on him, while Sale seems like he’s a tweak or two away from a big outing.

Pick: Red Sox