Picks, predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox on Monday, May 1

After being swept by the Baltimore Orioles last week, the Boston Red Sox climbed back above .500 thanks to a series win against the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend. Now, they’ll look to keep that winning streak going against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have won their last three series. The Blue Jays will send Jose Berrios (2-0, 4.71 ERA) to the mound in tonight’s series-opener, while the Red Sox will counter with Corey Kluber (1-4, 6.75 ERA).

The Blue Jays are -150 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Red Sox are +130 underdogs. The total is set at 10.

Blue Jays-Red Sox picks: Monday, May 1st

Injury report

Blue Jays

Out: SP Mitch White (right elbow inflammation), RP Adam Cimber (right rhomboid strain), SP Hyun Jin Ryu (Tommy John surgery)

Red Sox

Out: SP James Paxton (right hamstring strain), RP Joely Rodriguez (right oblique strain), SP Garrett Whitlock (right elbow ulnar neuritis), INF Yu Change (left hamate fracture), OF Adam Duvall (distal radius fracture, left wrist)

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios vs. Corey Kluber

After struggling through his first two starts of the year, Berrios has put together two strong starts in a row, as he allowed two runs in seven innings against the Houston Astros on April 19 before throwing seven shutouts innings against the Chicago White Sox on April 25 where his fastball topped out at 97 mph. After being a bit of a disappointment in his first year and a half in Toronto, Berrios appears to be turning a corner.

Much like Berrios, Kluber is coming off his best start of the season, as he allowed one run in six innings against the Orioles. A former Cy Young winner, Kluber’s looked like a shell of himself this year, as he’s walking a ton of batters (7.5% walk rate), allowing a lot of hard contact (42.1% hard-hit rate) and isn’t getting strikeouts (career-low 18.9% strikeout rate). While Kluber’s last time out was a good sign, it appears to be a bit of an outlier.

Over/Under pick

Even with Berrios and Kluber coming off their best starts of the year, I’m still taking the over, as Kluber’s allowed more than four runs in three of his five starts this year, while Berrios has cleared that mark in two of his starts this year. The Red Sox scored seven runs yesterday while the Blue Jays scored eight, and I’m betting on that trend to continue today.

Pick: Over 10

Moneyline pick

With such an uncertain pitching matchup, I’m banking on the Blue Jays’ powerful lineup, which features five hitters who are hitting .380 or better off Kluber in their career.

Pick: Blue Jays