Picks, predictions for Phillies vs. Dodgers on Monday, May 1

After taking two of three from the Houston Astros in a World Series rematch over the weekend, the Philadelphia Phillies now continue west to start up a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. First pitch of the series-opener is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Taijuan Walker (2-1, 4.97 ERA) will go for Philly after leaving his last start early with forearm soreness, while Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 0.00) makes his second start back from an ankle injury for L.A.

The Dodgers are -165 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Phillies are +140 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Phillies-Dodgers picks: Monday, May 1st

Injury report

Phillies

Day to day: OF Bryce Harper (elbow)
Out: RP Andrew Bellatti (triceps), 1B Darick Hall (thumb), 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee), RP Nick Nelson (hamstring), SP Ranger Suarez (elbow)

Dodgers

Out: SP Michael Grove (groin), SS Miguel Rojas (hamstring), DH J.D. Martinez (back), SP Ryan Pepiot (oblique), SP Jimmy Nelson (elbow), 2B Gavin Lux (knee), RP Daniel Hudson (ankle), RP Blake Treinen (shoulder), SP Walker Buehler (elbow), RP JP Feyereisen (shoulder), RP Alex Reyes (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker vs. Tony Gonsolin

The Phillies insist Walker was pulled from last week’s start against the Seattle Mariners for purely precautionary reasons, but it remains to be seen what the righty will look like and how deep he’ll be able to go tonight. The righty had been pitching better of late, with newfound velocity on his fastball and just three runs allowed over 12.1 innings against the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox. His splitter remains a weak-contact machine, so if his arm is right he could give the Phillies some solid innings — although he’ll have his work cut out for him against a Dodgers lineup that mashes right-handed pitching.

Gonsolin isn’t fully built up yet, throwing just 65 pitches in his 2023 debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates after missing the first few weeks of the season with an ankle injury. He’ll probably be limited to around 80 or so pitches this time out, but with his splitter/slider combo he could still be effective for as long as he’s out there.

Over/Under pick

Between injuries and Walker’s ineffectiveness, there are just too many question marks around the pitchers in this game for me to take the under. Both of these lineups have killed righties this year, while the Phillies’ bullpen has been taxed of late and could be vulnerable in the later innings.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

At the end of the day, I trust Gonsolin — even with a limited pitch count — and the Dodgers’ big lefty bats more than I trust Philly.

Pick: Dodgers