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Jaguars win total prediction 2023: Picking Jacksonville’s win total

Can the Jags keep building on last year’s success?

AFC Divisional Playoffs - Jacksonville Jaguars v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Things were finally clicking for the Jaguars in the 2022-23 season as they continued to build the franchise around QB Trevor Lawrence under the new leadership of Doug Pederson. The Jags reached the playoffs after going 9-8 for the first time since 2017, beating the Chargers in the Wild Card round.

They have the highest win total by a significant amount in their conference, and can expect to win the AFC South this season if things keep moving in the right direction. In the draft, they prioritized offensive positions in the first three rounds, adding a tight end, running back, and offensive tackle. They added depth at DE and LB in later rounds.

We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Jacksonville Jaguars can beat their 2023 win total. The odds below are as of May 3.

AFC South win totals

Jaguars: 10.5 (Over +125, Under -145)
Titans: 7.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Colts: 6.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Texans: 6.5 (Over +110, Under -130)

Notable offseason moves

  • Signed OL Chandler Brown, OT Josh Wells, OLB Kamu Grugier-Hill, DL Michael Dogbe and DL Henry Mondeau
  • Re-signed CB Tevaughn Campbell, S Andrew Wingard, DT Roy Robertson-Harris, and DL Adam Gotsis
  • Signed RB Jamycal Hasty to a contract extension.
  • Placed the franchise tag on TE Evan Engram
  • Released CB Shaquill Griffin
  • Lost RT Jawaan Taylor, EDGE Arden Key

Jacksonville Jaguars prediction: Over 10.5

The Jags had nine wins last season after a three-win season in 2021 — after that kind of jump, a two-win increase seems very reasonable. The Jags also improved as the season moved forward, winning six of their last seven games of the regular season. With an entire offseason to improve on that foundation, I like their chances this year. Their performance in the playoffs showed that they’re able to hold their own on the big stage.

My concerns lie with the losses of Taylor and Key on the Jags’ defense. They clearly prioritized the offensive line and both the defensive line and secondary in the offseason, so we will see if those moves can cover the absence of two key players on their defense.

What moves might change our prediction?

The defensive question still looms, and could end up being a challenging flaw to work around this season.