Two NL playoff hopefuls will be gunning for a series win on Wednesday afternoon, as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers face off in the rubber game of a three-game set from Milwaukee’s American Family Field. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. The legend himself, Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 2.53 ERA), will go for L.A. as the Brewers counter with fellow lefty Wade Miley (3-1, 2.31).
The Dodgers are currently listed as -165 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Milwaukee checks in as a +140 underdog. The run total is set for 8.
Dodgers-Brewers picks: Wednesday, May 10
Out: DH J.D. Martinez (back), SP Michael Grove (groin), RP Jimmy Nelson (elbow)
Out: RP Gus Varland (hand), SP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder), RP Matt Bush (shoulder), OF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder), INF Luis Urias (hamstring), SP/RP Aaron Ashby (shoulder)
Clayton Kershaw vs. Wade Miley
Even at age 35, Kershaw just keeps on doing it. The lefty was roughed up a bit last time out against the San Diego Padres, allowing four runs on eight hits and a whopping five walks in just 4.2 innings, but that was an extreme outlier — those five free passes were as many as Kershaw had allowed all season up to that point, while he’s given up more than two runs just twice across seven starts. Kershaw’s slider remains one of the best pitches in baseball, with a 36% whiff rate and a .128 batting average against, and he’s throwing it more than ever at nearly 45% of the time. Against a Brewers lineup that’s been the league’s worst against left-handed starters this year, Kershaw should thrive.
Miley’s no slouch either, as the veteran remains one of the most confounding pitchers around — hardly ever cracking 90 on the radar gun but piling up weak contact (83rd percentile in average exit velocity, 84th in hard-hit rate). The secret? Elite command of both his cutter in on righties and his changeup down and away. Miley has yet to allow more than three runs in a start this season while pitching six or more innings four times in six tries, so we could be in for a pitcher’s duel this afternoon.
Both of these lineups have struggled against lefties this year, and given the quality of this pitching matchup runs should be at a premium. The Dodgers (mainly Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman) do have some encouraging personal histories against Miley, but even if L.A. puts a few on the board, it’s hard to see a Brewers team that ranks dead last in K rate and OPS against southpaws getting to Kershaw.
Pick: Under 8
Seriously, Milwaukee has been bad against lefties this season, and if they score more than a run or two against Kershaw it’ll be a minor miracle. That should be plenty for a Dodgers offense that’s swinging the bats pretty well right now.