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No 2023 offseason move will be bigger than the New York Jets trading with the Green Bay Packers for Aaron Rodgers prior to draft day. The Jets finished with a 7-10 record with plenty of talent on the roster, though a rotating cast of struggling quarterbacks made it extremely difficult to get to the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
New York started Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White and Chris Streveler at QB last season, so this is about as big of an upgrade as you can get at the quarterback position.
We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the New York Jets can beat their 2023 win total. The odds below are as of May 3.
AFC East win totals
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
New York Jets: 9.5 (Over -145, Under +125)
Miami Dolphins: 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
New England Patriots: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Notable offseason moves
Well, adding one of the best quarterbacks of all time is a notable move. Outside of landing Rodgers, the Jets signed former Packers wide receiver Allen Lazard and are expected to add Randall Cobb as well. Other than going after former Packers, the Jets haven’t been to active in free agency. Some notable losses include defensive end Nathan Shepherd, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, guard Nate Herbig and Mike White.
New York Jets prediction: OVER 9.5
Oddsmakers suggest the Jets have a good chance at getting to 10 wins based on the -145 odds, but that feels worth the risk. New York has a solid roster and even had the top offensive rookie of the year (Garrett Wilson) and defensive rookie of the year (Sauce Gardner) last season. As a team, the Jets completed 56.9% of passes last season, and Rodgers is such a massive upgrade even after a poor final season with the Packers.
What moves might change our prediction?
If Rodgers is put in charge of all roster decisions the rest of the offseason and starts lobbying for more friends, I’ll change my prediction. Landing Lazard is a decent addition with the potential for adding Cobb but if AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews are starting at linebacker this fall, the Jets may be in trouble. In all seriousness if Rodgers stays healthy all season, this team is much more talented than 9.5 wins.