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Patriots win total prediction 2023: Picking New England’s win total

How will Pats fare after free agency rush?

New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images

The New England Patriots found an unexpected star in rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe last season, but their season ended in a disappointing 8-9 record, third in the AFC East. They got very active during free agency, picking up some big-name signings to place around Mac Jones, and got Bill O’Brien to come in as offensive coordinator.

We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the New England Patriots can beat their 2023 win total. The odds below are as of May 3.

AFC East win totals

Bills: 10.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Dolphins: 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Jets: 9.5 (Over -145, Under +125)
Patriots: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

Notable offseason moves

  • Signed TE Mike Gesicki, RB James Robinson, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, OT Reilly Reiff, OT Calvin Anderson, LB Chris Board
  • Re-signed CB Jalen Mills, S Jabrill Peppers, LB Mack Wilson, DT Daniel Ekuale, CB Jonathan Jones, and C James Ferentz
  • Lost RB Damien Harris, WR Jakobi Meyers, and TE Jonnu Smith

New England Patriots prediction: Over 7.5

They’ve certainly acquired some big-name offensive pieces here that should be able to beef up their offense. After hiring Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator, there seems to be much more hope that the Pats can outdo their 8-win 2022 season, or at the very least, repeat it. O’Brien and Jones should be able to work well together this upcoming season with some big offensive weapons and a great run game behind them. They also prioritized their defensive free agents, bringing back some big play-makers including Jonathan Jones.

What moves might change our prediction?

The Pats got a great cornerback in Christian Gonzalez in the draft and filled out their pass rush. Mac Jones is the biggest question — is he the missing piece in an otherwise completed offensive puzzle?