Picks, predictions for Braves vs. Blue Jays on Friday, May 12

The Toronto Blue Jays (21-16) return home for a three-game set with the NL-leading Atlanta Braves (25-12) on Friday, May 12. The game will get started at 7:07 p.m. ET from Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. The Jays were swept in a two-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies this week, while the Braves split with the Boston Red Sox. Spencer Strider (4-0, 2.70 ERA) will look to continue his dominant start to 2023 for Atlanta, while Toronto counters with Chris Bassitt (4-2, 4.28).

The Braves are -155 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Blue Jays +135 underdogs with the over/under set at 8.5. My last 24 moneyline and over/under bets went 15-8-1, so let’s make some picks.

Braves-Blue Jays picks: Friday, May 12

Injury report

Braves

Out: SP Max Fried (forearm), 3B Ehire Adrianza (elbow), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), RP Lucas Luetge (biceps), SP Kolby Allard (oblique), RP Tyler Matzek (elbow), SP Huascar Ynoa (elbow)

Blue Jays

Day to day: OF George Springer (illness)

Out: RP Zach Pop (hamstring), RP Adam Cimber (back), RP Mitch White (elbow), SP Hyun Jin Ryu (elbow), RP Chad Green (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider vs. Chris Bassitt

Strider has continued right where he left off after a breakout 2022 season and is throwing the ball well through seven starts this year. In his last outing, Strider allowed two runs on four hits and no walks with 10 strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Baltimore Orioles.

Bassitt is in his first season with the Blue Jays, and his numbers are a bit misleading due to one bad start. He allowed nine runs over 3.1 innings in his Toronto debut but in his last time out, Bassitt threw seven shutout innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Over/Under pick

Both offenses are inside the top seven in on-base percentage this season, but this will be more of a pitcher’s duel than you’d think. The two starting pitchers have been playing very well, so let’s go with the number falling short of nine on Friday night.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

Toronto is worth betting with these odds considering how well Bassitt has been throwing recently. He’s coming off his best start of the season and allowed fewer than three earned runs in five of his last six outings.

Pick: Blue Jays