The Philadelphia Phillies will look to get back to .500 when they take on the San Francisco Giants in the second game of a three-game series. First pitch from Oracle Park is set for 9:45 p.m. ET. Zack Wheeler (3-2, 3.80 ERA) will take the mound for the Phils, while Alex Cobb (3-1, 1.70) will get the start for the Giants.
Pilly is a -120 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, while San Francisco checks in at +100. The run total sits at 7.5.
Phillies-Giants picks: Tuesday, May 16
Out: RP Jose Alvarado (left elbow inflammation), 1B Darick Hall (torn UCL in right thumb), CF Cristian Pache (right meniscus tear)
Out: DH Joc Pederson (right hand contusion), OF Austin Slater (left hamstring strain)
Zack Wheeler vs. Alex Cobb
After starting the season on a bit of a sour note, Wheeler has turned things around lately, and is coming off a start where he allowed one run in seven innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. Wheeler ranks in the 95th percentile in exit velocity and barrel rate and the 84th percentile in expected slugging. While hitters are doing better against his fastball (.276 expected batting average), his offspeed stuff has looked just as crisp as it did during his stellar 2022 campaign.
Cobb’s been using his sinker/splitter combo to perfection, and enters tonight’s start with an NL-leading 1.70 ERA through 47.2 innings. He’s coming off a start where he threw 7.1 shutout innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and ranks in the 90th percentile in walk rate.
I’m backing the over here, just because it seems like the Cobb bubble could burst at any moment. He has an expected ERA that’s nearly two points higher than his actual ERA (3.63) and ranks in the 14th percentile in hard hit rate and the 27th percentile in exit velocity. That, combined with Wheeler having an up-and-down start to the season, has me taking the over at a relatively small total.
Pick: Over 7.5
The Phillies get the job done. Yesterday, Philadelphia was never able to get over the hump after they allowed six runs in the second inning. That won’t be the case today, as I’m expecting the Phillies’ big bats to get to Cobb early.