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Both the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox find themselves in danger of falling off the pace early in two of the most competitive divisions in baseball and in need of a win in Boston on Tuesday.
Seattle Mariners (-155, 10.5) vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta looks to improve upon a rough start to the 2023 season that has seen his ERA rise to 6.30, having allowed at least three runs in five straight starts.
Allowing hard contact has always been a priority for Pivetta with a career home runs per nine innings allowed rate of 1.5, which has spiked to 2.1 this season, but is sti getting 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings and gets to face a Mariners lineup that has struggled this season.
Entering the series, the Mariners were last among the 30 MLB teams in batting average at .225 with the third-lowest home runs per at-bat rate in the American League.
Despite the issues on offense, the Mariners entered the series with a .500 record thanks in large part to pitching, owning the best bullpen ERA in the league and send their top of the rotation starter Luis Castillo to the mound on Tuesday.
Castillo has had command issues in the past, and has limited walks better than ever this year with 10 strikeouts to 1.7 walks per nine innings this season.
Though Castillo has allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, his ERA is still 2.70 this season while his FIP is even lower at 2.55 and has allowed just three home runs across 46 2/3 innings this season.
Tuesday will be one of Castillo’s toughest tests of the season with Boston third in the league in runs per game, but advanced numbers on Baseball Savant seem to indicate regression is coming for the Red Sox.
Boston entered the series with a .267 batting average, 15 points higher than their .252 expected batters average on Baseball Savant and entered the series fifth in the league in slugging percentage while their expected slugging percentage ranked 12th.
With the Mariners entering the series second in the American League in road ERA and throwing their ace starter against a Red Sox that had scored three runs or fewer in four of their last six games entering the series, Tuesday’s affair sets up for a good night for the pitchers.
The Play: Mariners vs. Red Sox Under 10.5