Breaking down cut line for the 2023 PGA Championship

The PGA TOUR tees off the second round of the 2023 PGA Championship on Friday, and the leader entering the round in Bryson DeChambeau will be one of last players to take to the course today.

The first trios teed off on Friday at 7:00 a.m., but the last players won’t take to the course until 2:42 p.m. They should be able to get their entire round in, so hopefully we won’t have to wait until Saturday to see who will play the weekend.

How is the cut line determined?

The low 70 players and ties will play the weekend, unlike a standard PGA TOUR event where the cut is the low 65 and ties.

What is the projected cut line for the PGA Championship as of now?

Final: The cut line is +5, with 76 players expected to play the weekend.

Update 5:30 p.m. 79 players are +5 or better, with 17 exactly at +5. We’ve likely got our cut number, as there’s an 82% chance it will be +5 according to DataGolf.

That’s good news for Thomas Pieters, Phil Mickelson and Patrick Rodgers who will get in on the number most likely. But it won’t be enough for Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Brian Harman, who are likely to end up one stroke short.

Update 3:40 p.m. The cut is at +5 with 81 players with 14 exactly on the number. There’s a chance we could see +6 become a factor, as at DataGolf right now those players are given a 35.9% chance of playing the weekend.

Update 2:25 p.m. The +5 threshold has been crossed, and there are 86 players on that number, with 19 of them at +5 for now. That should continue to increase as conditions warrant, but +6 might be a bit far off for now even though some groups have yet to tee off this afternoon.

+5 is good news for Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, and Phil Mickelson, as all three are in the house on the number. Si Woo Kim, Rickie Fowler, and Billy Horschel are at +6 however, and they’ll need a bit of help to get there.

Update 1:05 p.m. There are now 79 players on +4 or better, with 19 on the number exactly. With the wind picking up, +5 seems much more like the eventual number than +4 as of now, but we’ll see how conditions change from here.

Update 11:45 a.m. We’re now at 81 players surviving at +4 or better, with 20 on the number exactly. In early trading it seems like +4 will feel safe, whereas +5 could be sweating until the end of play today. Keep in mind 133 players of the 156 entries are currently over par, and that those with the back nine still to play will have the advantage: The inward side of the course is certainly the easier half of Oak Hill.

Right now the projected cut line is +4, with 85 players surviving to the weekend, and 15 on that number exactly. But this will fluctuate all day long, and might move higher as course conditions get more difficult later in the day.

Who is not projected to make the cut?

Congrats to PGA teaching pro Gabe Reynolds on playing in a major, but he’s at +20 thru 12 holes today. He’s the caboose on this 156-man train and seems likely to stay in that spot.

Seamus Power and Webb Simpson are both +8 on their front nine Friday, and will need to find some birdies coming in to play the weekend. Talor Gooch and Danny Willett at +7 are in the same boat.