Picks, predictions for Mariners vs. Braves on Friday, May 19

Two of the brightest young stars in baseball collide as Julio Rodriguez leads the Seattle Mariners into an interleague showdown this weekend against Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves. First pitch for the opener from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Impressive rookies will face off on the mound, as Seattle sensation Bryce Miller (2-0, 0.47 ERA) faces off against Braves righty Bryce Elder (3-0, 1.94).

Atlanta enters as -140 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Mariners are +120 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.

Mariners-Braves picks: Friday, May 19

Injury report

Mariners

Out: RP Penn Murfee (elbow), RP Andres Munoz (deltoid), UTIL Dylan Moore (core)

Braves

Out: RP Lucas Luetge (biceps), SP Max Fried (forearm), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Bryce Miller vs. Bryce Elder

Miller has taken the league by storm since being called up earlier this month, allowing just one run and eight baserunners over his first 19 innings. The righty doesn’t have a very deep arsenal, but what he does have is quite possibly the nastiest four-seam fastball in the game right now:

Miller throws that bad boy over 63% of the time, and the numbers are ridiculous: a .093 batting average against and a .116 slugging percentage. Maybe the league will catch up to it eventually, but good luck.

Elder has been almost as effective this season, although the advanced numbers are a bit more skeptical. The righty ranks in the bottom 10 percent of the league in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, with an expected ERA nearly three full runs higher than his current mark. Some of that is due to how well the sinkerballer keeps things on the ground (56.8% ground ball rate) but Elder’s 10.0% HR/FB rate and 86.6% strand rate are both sure to come down eventually.

Over/Under pick

Atlanta has cleared this number in nine of its last 13 games, while the Mariners rank in the top 10 in wRC+ over the last couple of weeks. I expect Elder to struggle a bit on Friday, which requires this powerful Braves offense to only provide two or three runs to hit this over.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

In case you couldn’t tell, I’m a believer in Miller, and I think he has what it takes to keep Atlanta’s bats in check while Elder finally starts to crack a bit against a Mariners offense that’s shown signs of life recently. Give me the better pitcher at plus odds.

Pick: Mariners