Picks, predictions for Mets vs. Tigers on Tuesday, May 2

The New York Mets managed to salvage the final game of their three-game set with the divisional rival Atlanta Braves on Monday, and now they’ll look to gain ground as they head to Detroit to start a series with the Tigers on Tuesday night. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Joey Lucchesi (1-0, 2.19 ERA) will make another start for New York, while Michael Lorenzen (0-1, 7.07) goes for Detroit.

The Mets are currently -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Tigers are +135 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.

Mets-Tigers picks: Tuesday, May 2

Injury report

Mets

Out: OF Tim Locastro (back), RP Brooks Raley (elbow), SP Justin Verlander (shoulder), SP Carlos Carrasco (elbow), SP/RP Elieser Hernandez (shoulder), C Omar Narvaez (calf), SP Jose Quintana (ribs)

Tigers

Out: OF Kerry Carpenter (shoulder), RP Trey Wingenter (biceps), RP Beau Brieske (elbow), OF Austin Meadows (anxiety), SP Matt Manning (foot), SP Tarik Skubal (elbow),

Starting pitchers

Joey Lucchesi vs. Michael Lorenzen

Lucchesi will be making his third start for the Mets after injuries thrust him into New York’s starting rotation. Despite a fastball that barely gets over 90 mph, the lefty has acquitted himself pretty well, with just three earned runs allowed in 12.1 innings — although based on how hard opponents are hitting the ball (18th percentile in hard-hit rate) and how rarely Lucchesi earns swings and misses (2nd percentile in whiff rate), a lot of that success would seem to be batted-ball luck. That luck could continue, though, against a Tigers team that’s been punchless all year long.

After injury delayed his start to the season, Lorenzen has been a bit up and down, with five shutout innings against the Baltimore Orioles followed by five runs in five innings against the Milwaukee Brewers. The righty has been a workman-like starter in the past, and his strikeout rate is up while his walk rate is down, but he’s likely in for a rough time against a meat-grinder of a Mets lineup.

Over/Under pick

Lucchesi has been making it work through two starts with smoke and mirrors, and I think his luck will run out even against a weak Detroit offense on Tuesday. Combine that with a ferocious New York offense, and I think the over will cruise.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

There’s simply too much star power up and down the Mets’ lineup, while the Tigers don’t have enough of it to keep pace.

Pick: Mets