Picks, predictions for Yankees vs. Reds on Sunday, May 21

The New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds meet one more time for an early Sunday matinee from Great American Ballpark, with first pitch set for 11:35 a.m. ET. Luis Severino makes his long-awaited season debut for New York, while hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene gets the ball for Cincy (0-3, 4.60 ERA).

New York checks in on the moneyline as a -150 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Reds are +130 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.

Yankees-Reds picks: Sunday, May 21

Injury report

Yankees

Out: C Jose Trevino (hamstring), SP Luis Severino (lat), SP Domingo German (suspension), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring), 3B Josh Donaldson (hamstring), INF Oswald Peraza (hamstring), RP Tommy Kahnle (biceps), SP Carlos Rodon (back)

Reds

Out: SP Nick Lodolo (leg), RP Fernando Cruz (shoulder), OF TJ Friedl (oblique), RP Tony Santillan (back), 1B Joey Votto (shoulder), RP Connor Overton (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Luis Severino vs. Hunter Greene

Severino has been out since late March, when the hard-throwing righty suffered a lat strain towards the end of Spring Training — the same injury that cost him two months of the 2022 season. If he is finally healthy — and yes, that “if” is the size of the Grand Canyon at this point — he has the potential to help turn the Yankees’ season around. Whenever Severino’s been on the mound, he’s produced, with a 3.39 ERA and 10 K/9 for his career — including a 3.18 ERA over 102 innings in between IL stints in 2022. He’s among the game’s most dynamic arms, and while he’ll likely need some time to get his legs under him (he threw just 58 pitches in his most recent Minor League outing, for starters), he’ll do wonders for a New York rotation that’s been relying on Jhony Brito, Clarke Schmidt, Domingo German and various relievers to fill in the gaps.

Greene has taken a step back after big things were expected of him entering this season. The righty still boasts his electric, triple-digits fastball, but command has been an issue — both in terms of walks and loud contact. Major League hitters can catch up to any velocity if you leave it out over the plate, and Greene has coughed up 13 earned runs and five homers over his last three outings.

Over/Under pick

The first two games of this series have ended with totals of 8 and 11 runs, respectively, and I think we’ll see the over hit again on Sunday afternoon. Greene has struggled mightily with his command, while Severino is a dicey proposition in his first start back from the IL — and even if he’s sharp, he’ll likely only last four or five innings.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

There’s just so much uncertainty surrounding Severino in his return from the IL in a dangerous pitcher’s park, while the Yankees have struggled against hard-throwing righties like Greene in the past. I’ll take the plus odds here in a matchup that could go either way.

Pick: Reds