Picks, predictions for Red Sox vs. Angels on Monday, May 22

After taking two out of three from the Minnesota Twins over the weekend, the Los Angeles Angels will look to make it two series wins in a row when they welcome the Boston Red Sox to Angel Stadium for a three-game series. L.A. will send Jaime Barria (1-1, 1.96 ERA) to the mound for his first start of the year, while the Red Sox will counter with Tanner Houck (3-3, 5.48 ERA). First pitch is set for 9:38 p.m. ET.

The Angels are a slight -115 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Boston checks in at -115. The total is set at 9.5.

Red Sox-Angels picks: Monday, May 22

Injury report

Red Sox

Out: SP Farrett Whitlock (right elbow ulnar neuritis), INF Christian Arroyo (right hamstring strain), INF Yu Chang (left hamate fracture), RP John Schreiber (right teres major strain), OF Adam Duvall (distal radius fracture), SS Trevor Story (right UCL surgery)

Angels

Out: RP Austin Warren (torn ulnar collateral ligament), 3B Anthony Rendon (left groin strain), SP Jose Suarez (left shoulder strain), C Max Stassi (left hip strain)

Starting pitchers

Tanner Houck vs. Jaime Barria

Houck’s biggest problem this year has been his struggles the second and third time through the order, as hitters are averaging .375 against him a second time through the order compared to only hitting .111 when they see him for the first time. Houck ranks in the 60th percentile in barrel rate and the 64th percentile in whiff rate, but ranks in the middle of most other statistics.

After putting together a solid 2022 campaign, Barria’s reached a different level this season, and currently ranks in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 91st percentile in barrel rate in 23 innings out of the bullpen. This’ll be his first start of the season after manager Phil Nevin decided to give him a shot in the rotation over prospect Chase Silseth, who now moves to a late-inning role.

Over/Under pick

I’m going to take the under here. While I think that both Houck and Barria will get tagged for a couple runs, both teams have solid bullpens (Boston has a 3.84 bullpen ERA while the Angels’ bullpen has a 3.60 ERA) that should be able to limit the damage in the later innings.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

The Angels have the better lineup and better starter on the mound, so i’m going with them. They looked like a complete team in their series win over the Twins, and I think that carries over tonight against the Red Sox.

Pick: Angels