Picks, predictions for Rangers vs. Orioles on Friday, May 26

AL heavyweights collide for a big weekend series as the division-leading Texas Rangers head east to take on the Baltimore Orioles. First pitch of the series opener from Camden Yards is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. The red-hot Jon Gray (4-1, 3.02 ERA) gets the ball for Texas, while the O’s counter with heralded rookie Grayson Rodriguez (2-1, 6.21).

Baltimore enters as -135 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Rangers are slight +115 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Rangers-Orioles picks: Friday, May 26

Injury report

Rangers

Day to day: INF Ezequiel Duran (back)
Out: C Mitch Garver (knee), OF Travis Jankowski (hamstring), SP Jacob deGrom (elbow)

Orioles

Day to day: OF Cedric Mullins (personal)
Out: INF Ramon Urias (hamstring), RP Dillon Tate (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Jon Gray vs. Grayson Rodriguez

Gray is among the hottest pitchers in baseball right now, with just two runs allowed on 12 hits in 20 innings across his last three starts. The righty’s slider has been the star of the show so far, with a 35% whiff rate and a .106 batting average against as he’s consistently located it down and away from right-handed batters. If he keeps commanding his secondary offerings like this, he’ll be tough to beat.

Rodriguez entered the year as baseball’s top pitching prospect, but he’s had a bit of a bumpy adjustment to the Majors so far. He’s had a six-run and an eight-run start in the month of May, although he is coming off five frames of two-run ball against the Toronto Blue Jays last time out. The righty’s fastball is as electric as advertised, but he’s yet to display a real feel for and command of his plethora of offspeed pitches, leaving far too many over the heart of the plate.

Over/Under pick

These are two very solid lineups right now, and while Gray has been great recently, we’ve seen what can happen when he loses his command (and it’s worth noting that his hot streak has come against weak lineups in the Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics and Colorado Rockies). With Rodriguez yet to show he can navigate a quality lineup consistently, something like a 6-4 finish seems likely.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

Rodriguez is just too hard to trust right now with how good the Rangers are swinging the bats, and I expect Gray to do just enough to earn a win.

Pick: Rangers