Picks, predictions for Braves vs. Marlins on Thursday, May 4

The Atlanta Braves have rolled in the first two games of their three-game set against the Miami Marlins, and now they’ll look to wrap up a dominant divisional road trip with a sweep on Thursday afternoon. Dylan Dodd (1-1, 7.71 ERA) returns from Triple-A to start for Atlanta and give Max Fried an extra day of rest, while Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.48) goes for Miami.

Both Atlanta and Miami are currently at -110 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the run total is set at 8.5.

Braves-Marlins picks: Thursday, May 4

Injury report

Braves

Out: SS Orlando Arcia (wrist), C Travis d’Arnaud (concussion), RP Raisel Iglesias (shoulder), RP Lucas Luetge (biceps)

Marlins

Out: RF Avisail Garcia (back), 1B Garrett Cooper (ear), SP Trevor Rogers (biceps), RP J.T. Chargois (oblique), 3B Joey Wendle (oblique), SP Johnny Cueto (biceps)

Starting pitchers

Dylan Dodd vs. Jesus Luzardo

Dodd was thrust into the Opening Day rotation due to injuries to Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Mike Soroka, and his first taste of MLB action didn’t go very well: The lefty was shelled in his second career start, allowing seven runs on ten hits in 4.1 innings to the San Diego Padres. Dodd is largely a two-pitch pitcher, but neither his pedestrian low-90s fastball nor his slider have seemed Major League-quality as yet.

Luzardo, on the other hand, has stuff to spare, with a 97-mph fastball that’s among the hardest in baseball. His problem stems from spotty command, with a middling walk rate that both creates traffic on the bases and prevents him from getting deep into games — the lefty hasn’t reached the fifth inning in two of his last three outings. He also has a habit of leaving the ball over the plate a bit too often, with a barrel rate that ranks in the 15th percentile, leading to results that aren’t as sparkling as his arsenal would suggest.

Over/Under pick

Both Atlanta and Miami rank in the top 10 in team OPS against left-handed pitching. Luzardo has allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, while Dodd got shelled the last time we saw him in early April. Dangerous lineups + questionable starters = the over.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

It’s hard to know what to expect from Dodd, especially with an ERA hovering around 5 in Triple-A since getting demoted. Luzardo, meanwhile, has his work cut out for him against this Braves lineup but is the more trustworthy option at even odds.

Pick: Marlins