The Chicago Cubs (15-16) will kick off a three-game set against the Miami Marlins (16-16) on Friday, May 5 at 2:20 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Both teams are coming off getting swept, as Chicago lost three to the Washington Nationals while Miami was shut down by the division-leading Atlanta Braves. It’ll be a pitching rematch from just last week, Edward Cabrera (2-2, 4.67 ERA) will go for the Fish while the Cubs will turn to ace Justin Steele (4-0, 1.49) to snap their losing skid.
The Cubs are -165 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Marlins a +140 underdog with the over/under set at nine. My last 14 MLB moneyline and over/under picks went 10-4, so let’s get into it.
Marlins-Cubs picks: Friday, May 5
Out: 1B Garrett Cooper (ear), OF Avisail Garcia (back), SP Trevor Rogers (forearm), RP JT Chargois (oblique), 2B Joey Wendle (oblique), SP Johnny Cueto (biceps), RP Tommy Nance (shoulder), RP Nic Enright (cancer), RP Anthony Bender (elbow), SP Max Meyer (elbow)
Out: SP Adrian Sampson (knee), C Yan Gomes (head), RP Brandon Hughes (knee), SP Kyle Hendricks (shoulder), RP Ethan Roberts (elbow), RP Codi Heuer (elbow)
Edward Cabrera vs. Justin Steele
Cabrera has allowed exactly two runs in five of six starts this season as he gets ready for his seventh outing of his third MLB campaign. He allowed two runs on three hits and five walks with 12 strikeouts over five innings of work in last weekend’s win over the Cubs.
Steele has been fantastic through the first month of the season, allowing just six earned runs over 36.1 innings of work in six starts. In his most recent outing, Steele allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and a walk with three strikeouts over six innings last weekend against the Marlins.
A weak Marlins lineup against Steele should lead to very few runs scored in this contest. Steele was one of the best pitchers in MLB in April, and he’ll go up against a Miami offense that ranks dead last in runs per game (3.4). Chicago’s offense has been slumping itself recently, with just 13 runs scored over its last five games.
Pick: Under 9
I can’t go anywhere else than siding with Chicago to take game one of this series. The Cubs have the better pitcher and lineup on Friday afternoon with an on-base percentage (.341) that still ranks fourth in the league.