Picks, predictions for Yankees vs. Rays on Sunday, May 7

The New York Yankees (18-16) and the Tampa Bay Rays (27-7) wrap up their three-game divisional series on Sunday, May 7. First pitch from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. New York will send ace Gerrit Cole (5-0, 1.35 ERA) to the mound, while Tampa Bay counters with reliever Javy Guerra (0-0, 7.20 ERA) making his second career start. (Lefty Josh Fleming will follow for the bulk of the innings.)

The Yankees are the road moneyline favorites with -120 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rays are the +100 home underdogs, and the run total is set at 7.5. New York will hit the road on Monday for a four-game divisional set against the Toronto Blue Jays. Tampa Bay will also hit the road Monday for a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles before taking on the Yankees again in a four-game series starting next Thursday in the Bronx.

Yankees-Rays picks: Sunday, May 7

Injury report

Yankees

Day to day: SS Oswald Peraza (ankle)
Out: RF Aaron Judge (hip), DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring), SP Carlos Rodon (back), SP Luis Severino (lat), C Ben Rortvedt (shoulder)

Rays

Out: SP Tyler Glasnow (oblique), CP Pete Fairbanks (forearm)

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole vs. Javy Guerra

Cole is off to a great start this year and is set to make his eighth appearance. The Yankees have yet to lose a game that he has started. Most recently, Cole pitched six innings and allowed just two earned runs on five hits against the Cleveland Guardians. He walked three and punched out eight while not factoring into the decision.

Tampa Bay acquired Guerra from the Milwaukee Brewers on April 29. Not only does he get a new team, but also a slightly new role: The Rays gave Guerra his first career start in a matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but it was short-lived. He faced four total hitters and walked two of them before getting pulled. Guerra getting the start on Sunday signals that this will largely be a bullpen day for Tampa Bay, especially because he pitched an inning against the Yankees on Saturday.

Over/Under pick

Despite Guerra lasting a whopping 0.2 innings in his last “start,” the Rays’ pitching staff only gave up one run in the game. They used seven total pitchers against the Pittsburgh Pirates and largely shut the door after Guerra was pulled. Cole has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start this season.

Pick: Under 7.5

Moneyline pick

Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball, and the New York lineup is riddled with injuries. Still, when Cole is on the mound, he gives the Yankees a noticeable edge. New York is 7-0 when Cole starts a game this season, and I think they continue that streak on Sunday.

Pick: Yankees